-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
963
FXUS64 KMAF 120714
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

With the upper trough well to the east and any surface fronts
washing out, a quieter pattern settles in. Increasing thicknesses
and geopotential heights will lead to a warming trend today into
tomorrow. Highs today will be mostly in the 90s, 80s in higher
elevations and Western Low Rolling Plains, and 100s over parts
along the Pecos River, Reeves County Plains, and along the Rio
Grande. Light easterly flow will keep temperatures from becoming
extremely warm, but the boundary layer will be humid with dew
point temperatures in the 60s, upper 40s to 50s westernmost
regions through the short term. A mix of high clouds and light
easterly winds will keep lows warmer than average tonight, with
lows only falling into the lows 70s and above aside from 60s in
northern Lea County and Permian Basin, as well as higher
elevations. Winds veer to more southeasterly tonight. Thursday
features more widespread highs in the 100s over most of the SE NM
plains, along the Pecos River, Reeves County Plains and Stockton
Plateau, lower elevations in Culberson County, and near the Rio
Grande, with highs in the 90s everywhere else.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Thursday evening, Southeast New Mexico and West Texas will be
firmly beneath a broad ridge across the southern tier of the
CONUS, sandwiched between a trough over the Southeast and Florida
Peninsula and another trough over southern California. The latter
will gradually translate east-northeastward across the Four
Corners Region on Friday, flattening the ridge somewhat and
shunting its axis eastward. Locally, slightly decreasing
thicknesses in response on Friday will yield highs a couple
degrees cooler than Thursday, though temperatures will remain
around 2-3 degrees above normal in the middle to upper 90s for
most, and lower 100s through the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.
Additionally, Friday late afternoon and evening, there will be an
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms, mainly over
northwestern portions of the area in closer proximity to the
passing shortwave. However, this may change between now and then,
given precipitation chances are dependent on the eventual track of
the low. Regardless, forecast rainfall remains light, and storms
that develop would be mainly diurnal in nature.

Heading into the weekend, flow aloft transitions to quasi-zonal
Saturday and southwesterly on Sunday, with increasing subsidence
mitigating rain chances for our area. Cluster analyses and
deterministic guidance remain in fairly good agreement regarding
the evolution of the upper pattern this weekend and early next
week, with a deepening trough over the western CONUS and ridging
over the east, and a subtropical ridge of high pressure beneath
the West Coast trough progged to extend from west of Baja across
northern Mexico and into Texas. In our corner of the world, that
means continued dry conditions and a subtle warming trend that
will carry us into early next week with highs in the upper 90s and
100s and lows in the upper 60s and 70s each day. The silver
lining is that persistent southeasterly surface flow will keep
some semblance of low-level moisture around, and keep afternoon
temperatures at least a few degrees cooler than they might
otherwise become. Either way, it`s going to be hot, and the
effects of heat are cumulative, so those with outdoor plans or who
work outside will need to plan accordingly to prevent heat stress
and heat-related illness.

JP
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs prevail at all terminals throughout TAF period.
Light easterly winds at all terminals decrease in speed until 17Z
Wednesday. Winds back to northeasterly at FST at 17Z. Winds at all
terminals shift to southeasterly by 03Z Thursday, with gustiest
winds for terminals across SE NM plains into western Permian Basin
and over Stockton Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Big Spring               93  71  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 99  73 104  74 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   97  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            98  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           93  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    95  68 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    96  62  98  62 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     94  72  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   94  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     99  75 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...94