Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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954 FXUS62 KMHX 221008 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 608 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return to unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 600 AM Wednesday. Widespread dense fog has set up through much of the region, except for OBX and extreme western portions of the CWA. Land fog should burn off by 9am. Previous Discussion...As of 200 AM Wednesday...Guidance continues to back off on fog/stratus development offshore of NOBX. Along and west of hwy 17 continues to be the main fog concern for tonight with high pressure overhead and calm winds resulting in dew point depressions near 0 and ample low level moisture. Current indication is Pitt and Martin counties will be spared from the most dense fog, but areas south are likely to experience 1/4 mile or less visibilities early this morning. Introduced Widespread fog with 1/4SM vis mentions with this update along hwy 17 from the Onslow/Duplin/Pender county borders up to Washington, NC. Patchy dense fog is still possible elsewhere in the CWA this morning. Lows this morning will be in the upper 50s, near 60 through the CWA. Surface high pressure shifts further offshore today, with lee- troughing developing east of the Appalachians. This will lead to a modest increase in southerly flow across the coastal Carolinas. The increased southerly flow plus warming thicknesses beneath ridging aloft will support high topping out 5-10 degrees higher than today, in the mid to upper 80s inland. While instability will steadily build, it appears there will be enough of a cap beneath the ridge to keep the risk of afternoon convection very low. The one exception is along the central OBX where a coastal trough approaching from the east may support a few showers near, or just offshore by the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... Sfc high is offshore to our east tonight, with ridging continuing to build over us at higher levels from the SW. Quiet night in store, with lows in the low to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s for beaches. Some patchy fog is possible Wednesday night into early Thursday morning along hwy 17, but confidence and impacts remain low enough to prevent an inclusion in this forecast update. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure over the mid-Atlantic will start moving east on Thursday due to an incoming surface trough. Unsettled weather will continue through the period with a series of shortwaves forecast to move across the area. This will bring multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday...High pressure across the mid-Atlantic will keep things mostly dry on Thursday. Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching surface trough, causing an increase in cloud cover and PoPs during the evening and overnight hours. It will be quite toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal plain and around 80 at the beaches. Friday - Tuesday...High pressure will move offshore and make way for an active pattern that will last through the rest of the period. With high pressure offshore and broad troughing across the eastern US, southwesterly flow will have ENC within a warm and humid airmass. Multiple shortwaves passing over the area will create chance showers (25-45%) and thunderstorms each day. Ensemble guidance shows multiple chances over the coming days for sufficient CAPE and shear, which could generate some strong to severe storms, especially in the afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... Sfc high pressure will shift offshore by Wednesday morning. The developing return flow around the high will lead to an increasing layer of shallow moisture through tonight. As temp/dewpoint have decreased with winds tonight, there is a high likelihood of dense fog developing and overspreading the area from SW to NE, particularly along hwy 17. LIFR/VLIFR Visibilities less than 1/4 SM and ceilings BKN/OVC002 are possible through and shortly after sunset, with the worst conditions peaking between 5am and 7am. Return to VFR flight cats by midmorning WED with another day of fair- weather diurnal CU out ahead of the seabreeze which will turn light and var winds more Serly in the afternoon and evening. Another round of patchy fog is possible Wednesday night, but much less impactful than the fog expected this morning. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected through most of Thursday. The weather will become more unsettled on Friday and continue through the weekend with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Periods of sub-VFR visibilities and ceilings are expected. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 240 AM Tuesday...Recent iterations of the quick refresh HiRes guidance have continued backing off on fog/stratus development offshore of NOBX this morning. Fog for inland sounds and rivers are still possible through the early morning. Light winds will allow seas to continue to lay down, with good boating conditions for most waters during the daylight hours Wednesday. Another chance of fog Wednesday night, but impacts are expected to be much lower than this morning`s potential. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...SW winds around 10 kt will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt later Thursday. This wind regime, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, will stick around through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029- 045>047-080-081-092-094-193-194-198. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-136- 137-230. Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...OJC/RJ MARINE...OJC/RJ