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023
FXUS62 KMHX 232042
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
442 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A surface trough will reside across the piedmont while a series
of upper level shortwaves will generate multiple rounds of
shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. A stronger
cold front will move through early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM Thursday...Quite warm and humid across the area
this afternoon with temps in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
across inland areas and around 80 to mid 80s closer to the
coast. The sea breeze is migrating inland and seeing some
agitated cu along and ahead of it but have yet to see any
convection develop. Still anticipate upstream vort max and assoc
convection currently pushing into the western piedmont to reach
western sections of the FA early this evening bringing the
threat of a few strong storms. SPC continues a marginal risk of
severe across western counties as a few storms this evening
could bring damaging wind gusts and perhaps large hail. As we
move through the evening, instability will wane and the severe
threat should end by midnight but showers and isolated tstms may
continue through the overnight as additional mid level energy
pushes across the area. Muggy overnight with lows generally in
the upper 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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As of 4 PM Thursday...A moist and unstable airmass remains
across the region Friday with another mid level shortwave
and sfc front approach from the NW. Shower chances linger
through the morning but expect greater coverage during the
afternoon, around 30-50%, when instability is maximized. The
severe threat will be minimal with shear around 20-25 kt and
SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Warm and muggy conditions will
persist but low level thicknesses are several meters lower than
today and expect highs in the mid 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 4 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Weather remains unsettled for the weekend and into early next week
with small chances (20-30%) each day through Tuesday

- Above normal temperatures for much of the period with inland areas
in the mid to upper 80s and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.

Much of the long term forecast will be characterized by
unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms possible each
through midweek before drier conditions prevail.

The period will begin on Friday night with a weak frontal
system with the parent high over the Canadian Maritimes
gradually sinking into the Carolinas. By the time it arrives,
there will not be much of an airmass change with warm and moist
conditions remaining prevalent. While this is happening the tail
end of the departing system will combine with an approaching
system from the west creating a stationary front that will
feature several shortwaves pulsing along it through the weekend.
While no day will likely be a washout, periods of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected particularly during diurnal peak
heating.

Along with the rain chances, temperatures are expected to be above
normal and heat index values creeping into the low to mid 90s,
especially inland locations on Sunday and Monday afternoons. These
two day will present the hottest conditions before a bit of
relief although still warm for the middle part of the week.

For next week model confidence is very low as attention turns to a
slow meandering low pressure system over the upper midwest that will
bring the next wave of moisture in from the west. Forecasted
precipitation chances are low for now due to the uncertainty
but would not be surprised to see them increase in future
iterations of the forecast as models get a better idea of how to
handle on what right now is a very disorganized system at best.
Stay tuned.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Pred VFR expected much of the period but
isolated to scattered convection may bring periods of sub-VFR
beginning this evening and continuing into Friday as mid level
shortwaves move across rtes with a moist and unstable airmass
remains in place. Stronger storms will be possible this evening
across western rtes which could bring strong wind gusts and
hail. Light winds and descent cloud cover will limit fog
development but cannot rule out patchy shallow fog at some
locations late tonight but probability for widespread fog very
low (<10%).

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...For Friday and beyond expect rain and
thunder chances each day with afternoon hours being most
susceptible to convection. Southwest winds will prevail for much
of the period with speeds of 5- 10 kts gusting to 15.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 430 PM Thursday...High pressure will remain offshore
through the short term bringing SW winds around 15 kt or less.
Could see gusts to around 20 kt during the afternoon and evening
hours when thermal gradients are tightest. Seas will be around
2-3 ft. Thunderstorm chances will increase this evening and
continue through Friday as series of weak systems move across
the region.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20
kt, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers and
thunderstorms, will stick around through the period.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/SK
MARINE...RTE/SK