-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
977
FXUS62 KMHX 181143
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
743 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall across the waters today, then
shift east tonight as another area of low pressure approaches
from the west. That low will impact the area through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 700 AM Saturday...

KEY POINTS:

- First wave of high coverage showers moving through NE
  portions of the CWA right now, no impacts expected through the
  morning.


- Low rain coverage for late morning into early afternoon

- Second, more impactful wave of showers and thunderstorms sets
  up this afternoon through the evening, with a marginal (1/5)
  risk of severe thunderstorm winds region-wide and a marginal,
  localized risk of flash flooding along hwy 264, including
  Greenville.

A cluster of showers are moving through NE portions of the
region along an area of enhanced isentropic lift at the moment.
Severe threat remains low this morning with little instability
along this line. This cluster of showers will likely help
inhibit convection through the early afternoon as it stabilizes
the atmosphere. This is reinforced by the CAMs catching onto
minimal shower coverage through the rest of the morning into the
early afternoon. While unlikely, if we end up with some breaks
in the clouds late this morning, an increase in insolation could
in turn increase our instability, resulting in a higher threat
of severe weather and thunderstorm coverage.

The second wave in the late afternoon through the end of the
near term is the more impactful wave. Warm front extending from
a sfc low to our west lifts north through the area before
setting shop along the hwy 264 corridor this evening. This warm
front provides us with the most effective forcing through the
afternoon and evening. Heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms
could form up along the warm front, and train in one location
as long as the front is stationary. This would result in an
increased risk of flash flooding for the hwy 264 corridor,
including Greenville. Further south, we have no shortage of instability
setting up in the WAA regime, but a lack of forcing will help
mitigate storm initiation. Fortunately for us the warm front is
displaced from the area of highest instability, lessening our
severe threat for today despite ample shear. We have been
downgraded from a slight to a marginal risk of severe weather by
the SPC, with severe winds the primary threat. Warm front
begins to dip back south Saturday evening. The timing of this
movement will play a large role in the severe potential for the
Crystal Coast. If the warm front dips down before sunset, while
there is still decent instability, severe potential will be
higher. If it dips down after sunset, severe potential
decreases.

Temperatures on Saturday will vary quite a bit from SW to NE.
South of the stalled front, highs should warm into the 70s and
80s, while north of the boundary, highs may struggle to get out
of the 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 430 AM Saturday...Warm front continues moving south and
spins off a weak sfc low which will then push offshore Sunday
morning with stronger northerly flow ensuing as the low deepens
offshore. Upper level low trailing behind the sfc low provides
enough forcing for showers to linger through Saturday night.
Heavy rain is still possible through the night along and east of
hwy 17 as low formation provides additional forcing. Lows
Saturday night near 60 inland and for NOBX, mid 60s for the
remainder of the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will impact the
region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the
north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will
approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Sunday...Low pressure will push offshore by early in the day
bringing a more stable environment across the area, however the
upper trough will slowly push across the area Sunday continuing
to bring the threat for rain showers across ENC on a brisk nerly
breeze. Even if no rain, ovc skies and breezy conditions will
prevent temps from rising much, and remaining only in the 60s
through the day. Drier conditions ensue Sun night with lows in
the 50s.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with
steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 70s,
then by Tue and esp Wed into Thu, rise through the 80s and back
above climo. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise
into the 60s by mid week.

Friday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a
shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s
end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a
warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this
far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Sat night/...
As of 715 AM Friday...Widespread VFR through much of the
region, although low ceilings exist where the cluster of high-
coverage showers are moving through. Conditions will continue
deteriorating following the showers, improving to VFR behind it. As
second wave of precip comes through late afternoon onwards chances
of thunderstorms and heavy rain increase, with ceilings in the
VFR/MVFR range. Saturday night a drop to IFR is expected with
low level moisture increasing, resulting in low ceilings.

LONG TERM /Sun through Wed/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A low pressure system will impact the area
through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. Pred
VFR conditions are expected early through mid week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...Warm front lifts north through the
day, with winds becoming E or SE for all waters. Wind speeds
will be in the 5-15kt range. Along the boundary, widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected, the strongest
of which could produce gusty winds of 34kt+ and small hail. The
boundary then stalls, with breezy southwesterly winds of 10-15kt
developing south of it, and 10- 20kt easterly winds to the
north. A low will move along the boundary, then shift offshore
Saturday night. Increasing northeasterly winds are then expected
behind the departing low. Winds will be approaching 25kt late
Saturday night, increasing to 25-30kt Sunday morning for
northern waters and sounds as the low deepens offshore.

For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4 ft will be common through
Saturday. Seas will then begin to build to 3-6 ft Saturday
night into Sunday morning within the strengthening
northeasterly surge of wind behind the departing low.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will shift off of
the NC coast during the day Sun, with gusty nerly winds in it`s
wake. Solid SCA cond expected across all waters and sounds,
including Alligator River, through Sunday as winds inc to 20-30
kt. SCA cond linger into Monday evening for Pamlico Sound and
the coastal waters as moderately gusty ne winds keep seas
elevated and wind gusts aoa 25 kt. Seas expected to drop below 6
ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 AM Sat...A warm front will stall west to east along hwy
264 (including Greenville) for a time later today into the
evening, with the potential for convection to train along the
boundary. If this occurs, max QPF guidance suggests rainfall
amounts as high as 3- 6". This may occur over a relatively small
area, but is noteworthy coming on the heels of the recent round
of rain. Where/if this occurs, there would be a locally higher
risk of hydro/flash flooding concerns, and we`ll be closely
monitoring this potential.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX