-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
559
FXUS61 KOKX 250548
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
148 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the region through Wednesday as a frontal
system approaches from the west. Its associated warm front lifts
though the region Wednesday night into early Thursday, followed by a
cold front Thursday night. High pressure builds to the north Friday
and then remains into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mostly cloudy for tonight with a low level easterly flow
combined with increasing moisture in the mid levels ahead of an
approaching weak system to our west. It will be dry for the most
part, but a few showers may sneak into the western zones
tonight. Radar currently shows light returns just starting to
enter portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. At this time, much of
this is likely not reaching the ground or will only put out
trace amounts. NBM was used for low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Cloudy through the period with rain chances generally trending
upward slowly across the area. The better chances will be during
Wednesday night with a warm front passing through, and the
probabilities will be highest north and west of the city. Models
showing some elevated instability, but will leave out the
mention of thunder as shortwave lift doesn`t look particularly
strong, and mid level lapse rates will be unfavorable with a
longwave ridge aloft still nearby. Cloudy otherwise through the
short term forecast. Blended NBM 25th and 50th percentiles for
high temps due to the cloud cover. Highs only in the 60s for
most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A northern stream upper trough closes off and moves across the
upper midwest and southern Canada into northern New England
Thursday into Thursday night. An associated frontal system,
first a warm front Thursday morning, then a cold front late
Thursday into Thursday night, moves across the region and brings
chances of precipitation. The best chances will be across the
northern tier. There will be some surface based CAPE and
instability, along with some shear, for a chance of
thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. Precipitation
may linger just to the south and west of the region Friday into
Saturday evening until an upper ridge builds eastward.

The high amplitude ridge builds between the northern offshore
closed low and another closed low that remains nearly stationary
over the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday and Sunday. This
ridge and associated high pressure to the north will bring a
period of dry weather Saturday night through Monday. The upper
ridge weakens early next week and the southern closed low begins
to move northward and may bring chances of precipitation back
into the region for Tuesday.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal Thursday and
Friday, and then near seasonal normals Saturday into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through much of tonight and
then begins to weaken as a frontal system approaches Wednesday.

Cigs gradually lower to MVFR tonight. MVFR will continue on
Wednesday. There is the potential for IFR cigs as early as
Wednesday morning, but there is a higher chance IFR cigs don`t
move in until Wednesday evening.

Scattered -SHRA approaches from the west on Wednesday. Best
chances will be after 00z for the NYC terminals, but can start
as early as the afternoon hours (after 18Z).

E winds will drop below 10 kt tonight, then increase Wednesday
10-15 kts with gusts peaking near 20 kts.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled amendments possible for cigs lowering to MVFR
tonight.

-SHRA possible as early as 18Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: Chance of showers with IFR-MVFR cigs, but
mainly after midnight at KISP/KGON.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR in showers/thunderstorms.

Friday-Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas with this update.

Long period easterly swells from a slowly departing offshore
low will to continue to produce advisory level seas on the ocean
through Wednesday night with waves possibly remaining near 5
feet through Thursday evening as swells diminish. SCA has been
extended through Wednesday night for the time being. For
Thursday night, ocean seas likely fall below 5 feet as the
swells continue to diminish and as a northerly flow develops
behind a frontal system. Sub advisory levels will then continue
through the weekend. For the non ocean waters winds and seas
will remain below advisory levels Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The afternoon high tides along the Long Island south shore have
passed and waters levels have receded below minor flooding
benchmarks. Additional coastal flooding is not anticipated
beyond this high time cycle.

The high risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday
evening at all the ocean beaches, and through Thursday evening
at the Suffolk County beaches. There is a moderate risk Thursday
at the New York City and Nassau ocean beaches. Offshore low
pressure southeast of Long Island was still producing long
period E/SE swells across the waters. These swells will be
lowering late Thursday and continue lowering Thursday night and
Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this afternoon for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...