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020
FXUS61 KPBZ 021136
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
736 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers expected today with crossing low pressure. The
next chance of widespread precipitation will arrive by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers across the region today. No thunder.
- Cooler temperatures than Saturday.
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Update focused on minor changes to PoPs for a few hours based on
radar trends, as well as adjusting dewpoints with a hi-res near
term blend.  No major changes.

Previous discussion...

Light showers will spread across the region this morning ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough, eventually pushing an
associated surface cold front through this evening. Opted to not
included any mention of thunder, as excessive cloud cover
should limit instability. The lack of strong forcing and
diminished upper support should result in more scattered
coverage, and some locations may see little to no rain.
Temperatures will be cooler today with less solar insolation.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather resumes this evening with shortwave ridging.

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Dry weather resumes tonight with the loss of daytime heating
and exiting of the shortwave. Any lingering overnight showers
will be confined to upslope Laurel Highland zones. The lack of
notable dry advection behind the system could make fog a
potential overnight impact, depending on the degree/quickness of
cloud clearing.

Dry conditions continue Monday with subtle ridging stretching
from the lower Tennessee River Valley to the upper Ohio River
Valley. Temperatures will warm to above normal with increasing
heights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower/storm chances increase for the second half of the work
  week.

- Temperatures will trend down as an upper low settles over the
  eastern CONUS.

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Continued dry conditions Tuesday under the influence of high
pressure will be followed by unsettled conditions the remainder
of the week with a crossing low pressure system and upper trough
settling in over the eastern CONUS. Ensembles suggest this
pattern is maintained through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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An area of light rain, in advance of a weakening shortwave
trough, is currently crossing the Upper Ohio Valley. More
scattered showers are anticipated by later this morning and
during the afternoon before the passage of a dying cold front
essentially ends precipitation. Thunder chances are very low due
to a lack of instability.

MVFR ceilings are already in place at ZZV and are expected to
spread slowly eastward into the early afternoon. This remains a
compromise between the quicker LAV statistical guidance and the
slower NBM blended guidance. Once MVFR occurs, ceilings are
likely to wobble between MVFR and VFR into the evening hours.

Depending on boundary layer moisture and clearing of residual
stratocumulus, fog and/or low stratus may develop Monday
morning. However, variability on potential outcomes for that
period remains high.

.Outlook...
Upper riding and surface high pressure will support a return to
VFR conditions by Monday afternoon with a dissipating field of
diurnal cu.

The next low pressure system is favored to arrive Wednesday
afternoon and evening and promote fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...CL/88
SHORT TERM...Rackley/88
LONG TERM...Rackley/88
AVIATION...CL/Frazier