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950
FXUS62 KRAH 141845
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross central North Carolina overnight, then stall
along the coastline through the weekend before lifting back across
the region late Sunday into Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Friday...

A cold front currently extends from Maine southwest through New
England into Ohio. A trough to the southeast is expected to set off
some showers and thunderstorms locally, but models are widely
divergent on just how much coverage will occur across North
Carolina. As of 2pm, there has been a single shower in North
Carolina, to the west of the Triad. Several runs of the HRRR have
shown very isolated coverage, while several runs of the RAP actually
show greater coverage as far southeast as the US-1 corridor around
midnight. Because of the lack of coverage on the radar so far, have
remained on the conservative side with the coverage of storms this
afternoon/evening. Still think that the highest chances for rain
will be across northwestern counties from the Triad to Person
county, with minimal (but non-zero) chances of rain south of US-64.
The cold front is expected to pass across the region after midnight,
and considering this timing, the front is not expected to have any
showers with it. Tonight`s lows should range from the mid 60s to the
low 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Friday...

Tonight`s cold front should be just exiting the forecast area to the
southeast tomorrow morning, but the front is supposed to linger
along the coastline through the daytime hours. The entire forecast
area should be dry into the early afternoon, but it appears that by
mid afternoon, some thunderstorms should begin to fire along the
front again. Models are showing a rather tight gradient of where the
storms could occur, and right now, it appears that only portions of
Sampson County could receive rain in our area, with the rest of the
precipitation remaining to the southeast. However, if the front
hangs up a little bit farther to the northwest, then the pops may
have to be expanded northwest into Cumberland and Wayne counties or
farther. The front will not bring a major change in air mass - high
temperatures along with dewpoints on Saturday should each come down
a couple degrees. Still, most southern counties should reach the
lower 90s, with mid to upper 80s expected for highs elsewhere. The
chance for thunderstorms should come to an end with sunset, and the
reduction in low temperatures will be more noticeable than the drop
in high temperatures - areas in the northeast could possibly drop
into the upper 50s, but nearly all locations will have lows in the
60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Long term period will be warm and dry as upper level ridge anchors
over the Mid-Atlantic region though the week. At the surface, high
pressure will move off the New England coast on Sunday and linger
over the northern Atlantic into midweek, extending into Central NC
keeping warm dry air over the region. Surface flow will generally be
from the south to southeast most of the week which will strongly
influence above normal temperatures. By mid to late week as high
pressure influence weakens, a coastal trough could develop along the
coast resulting in some afternoon isolated showers and storms in the
far SE portion of the FA. Thus, have a 15-20% PoP for Thursday and
Friday afternoon in the SE areas close to the coast. Temperatures,
as mentioned before, will be above normal with highs each day in the
low to mid 90s. The only exception is Sunday where the NW region
could see some cloud coverage from possible shower activity in the
the higher mountains, where high temperatures could range from mid
to upper 80s over the Piedmont region.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 105 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the
next 24 hours. There still remains an isolated chance for a
shower/thunderstorm at INT/GSO through the afternoon/evening, but
chances are too low to include this in the TAF, let alone mention
any ceiling or visibility restrictions. Also do not think that there
will be enough cloud coverage to warrant any persistent ceilings.
Any chance of rain should end by midnight. While the wind is
generally out of the west-southwest right now, a cold front moving
through late this evening into the early morning hours should veer
the wind around to the northwest. The wind will likely continue to
veer to the northeast at all sites after 12Z Saturday, but did not
feel this warranted an additional line in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: The chance for any rain or restrictions remains minimal
during the next few days with quiet weather expected.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Green