-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
051
FXUS62 KRAH 181021
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas
through much of this week. Moisture will increase across the area
late this week into this weekend, bringing some increased rain
chances to the Sandhills/Southern Coastal Plain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 306 AM Tuesday...

The anomalous upper ridge remains anchored over the eastern US as
seen on water vapor imagery this morning. At the sfc, a 1022 mb high
was observed over southwestern VA. Light ssely sfc flow continues
over central NC, with noticeably lower dew points present over our
area (lower to mid 60s) compared to along and west of the mountains
(lower 70s). As such, the instability axis and any linger showers
are well west of our area.

Yet another day of dry and hot weather is expected as the upper
ridge remains anchored over the northeast US. The main moisture axis
will continue to push well west and north of our area. In fact, PWAT
is forecast to drop to between ~70 to 80 % of normal by this
afternoon. Given this, dew points should mix out into the lower to
mid 60s this afternoon. So while high temperatures will once again
reach the upper 80s/lower 90s, heat indices will remain well below
advisory criteria. Regardless, we continue to recommend practicing
heat safety if spending considerable amount of time outdoors today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 106 AM Tuesday...

The anomalous mid-level ridge will continue to deepen across the mid-
Atlantic/northeast US on Wednesday, with heights peaking 2 to 3
standard deviations above climatology. A stream of drier air will
continue to advect across our area, as PWAT remains near ~70 to 80 %
of normal. As such, dew points will once again mix out into the
lower 60s Wednesday afternoon.  Daytime highs will once again max
out in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

...Increasing Heat Risk Developing Over the Weekend and Into Early
Next Week...

The anomalously strong upper level anticyclone over the region will
begin to deamplify/flatten, while building westward over the
weekend, so much so that a weak northern stream trough influence
could bring some decent rain chances to the area by Sunday and into
early next week. Downstairs at the surface, high pressure off the
northern mid-Atlantic will shift south to over Bermuda by the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure over the SW Atlantic
will move westward towards the Florida/Georgia coast on Friday.

The main weather headlines will be in the intensifying heat,
especially over the weekend and continuing into early next week.
Low-level thicknesses and humidity will steadily rise as the low-
level flow becomes increasingly southerly. By Sunday, highs are
forecast to reach the mid/upper with BL dewpoints of 70-75 becoming
more prevalent across central NC, which will help heat indices to
rise into the 100-105 F range. This level of heat will affect anyone
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

In terms of rain chances, expect little to no impacts from the weak
area of low pressure moving ashore Florida/Ga. Aside from some
isolated seabreeze showers/storms across the far SE zones Friday and
Saturday afternoons, mostly dry conditions will persist through
Saturday. Rain chances should begin to increase Sunday and
especially Monday with the approach of the northern stream trough
and attendant front from the NW.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 620 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period as dry high
pressure remains anchored over central NC. Light ssely sfc flow will
continue through the period.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions should persist through Friday.
Moisture and the chance for showers will return this weekend,
especially near KFAY/KRDU/KRWI.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Luchetti