-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
656
FXUS62 KRAH 171847
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas
through much of this week. Moisture will increase across the area
late this week into this weekend, bringing some increased rain
chances to the Sandhills/Southern Coastal Plain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 159 PM Monday...

Upper level ridging remains centered over NC this afternoon while
surface high pressure is positioned off the VA coast. Across central
NC, low clouds have been stubbornly persistent across the western
Piedmont and are just now beginning to thin out. This has kept
temperatures down a few degrees across the Triad but it still
appears highs in the upper 80s/around 90 remain on track later this
afternoon.

With strong subsidence throughout the entire column and surface high
pressure offshore, precip will be hard to come by this afternoon.
However, elevated dewpoints have pooled across the Piedmont where
readings are generally in the lower 70s vs the mid 60s to the east.
A few showers could develop this afternoon, mainly near the
mountains, but a few 12Z HREF members suggest the potential for a
stray shower across Forsyth Co later today. The overwhelming
majority of guidance keeps our area dry today but I will maintain 10-
15 percent PoPs across the far western edge of our forecast area.
After 00Z, any remaining showers should dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating, resulting in a dry evening/overnight.

Temps tonight will once again remain mild with lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 159 PM Monday...

The synoptic pattern will become increasingly warm and dry as we
progress through the week. Mid level heights will continue to rise,
generally reaching 596-597dm by the time we reach the middle of the
week. With the upper ridge parked directly overhead and the surface
ridge offshore, we`ll see a continued period of dry weather with
above normal temps. Guidance is showing an overall decrease in PW`s
across the area throughout the week and it`s conceivable that even
fewer storms will develop across the western Piedmont Tuesday and
Wednesday. Moisture will still pool adjacent to the mountains but
mid level subsidence and increasingly warm 500mb temps will make it
difficult for storms to develop. As such, PoPs will remain in the
single digits or near zero through the middle of the week. Afternoon
temps will reach the lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows
Tuesday night will range from the lower to mid 60s, with about 2-3
degrees of warming expected for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 PM Monday...

The main story in the extended continues to be the heat risk,
especially the latter part of the weekend into early next week. Rain
chances look to slowly ramp up during this time as well, with the
best chances appearing early next week.

An anomalously strong 598 dm ridge will extend into the area from
the Atlantic and northern Mid-Atlantic through the first half of the
weekend. At the surface, this will translate to a broad area of high
pressure over the northern Atlantic that will promote largely dry
and increasingly hot temperatures into early next week. The bulk of
the heat looks to happen late Fri and Sat, lingering potentially
into early next week. High temperatures Thu will start out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, rising into the mid to upper 90s over the
weekend and perhaps lingering into Mon. Heat indices in the upper
90s are expected to rise into the triple digits over the upcoming
weekend, perhaps as high as 105 in portions of the Triangle.

As we head into late Sun and the first part of next week, a number
of ensemble solutions are showing potential influence from a
shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes that will try to bring
an approaching cold front in from the northwest. At the same time,
the mid-level ridge appears to weaken and move east over the
southwest Atlantic. This pattern shift could allow for an uptick in
showers and storms, particularly by late Sun and Mon as a front
approaches and a lee trough sets up.

In addition to a front, there may also be some influence from a
surface trough currently located east of the Bahamas. NHC currently
notes that this disturbance could move into a favorable area for
potential tropical development as it tracks west-northwestward. It
currently has a 30-percent chance of development as it tracks toward
the coast of the southeast US late Thu or Fri. While a number of the
GEFS/ECS members show some kind of low approaching the coast, there
remains a lot of uncertainty on its track and what strength it would
be if it does indeed develop. For what its worth, the latest GFS
continues the theme of some open wave moving along the Carolinas
Fri/Sat and perhaps Sun before lifting off on Mon, but there has
been little run-to-run consistency. If any system were to take a
track along the SE US, it could bring more cloud cover and increased
rain chances ahead of next week`s front, thereby possibly resulting
in somewhat lower highs than currently anticipated. As it stands
now, Thu/Fri/Sat are largely expected to be dry, with any rain
chances mainly confined with the sea-breeze over the Sandhills to
southern Coastal Plain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM Monday...

MVFR cigs have been stubbornly persistent across the western
Piedmont but are gradually showing signs of thinning out and/or
rising above 3kft. Once they reach VFR (BTWN 19-20z), expect VFR
conditions at all sites through tonight. There are suggestions in
today`s 12Z guidance that additional MVFR cigs will develop at
INT/GSO late tonight but outside of those locations, no weather-
related aviation impacts are expected.

As for storm chances today, most of the ensemble guidance keeps any
storm development west of INT. Can`t entirely rule out a stray
shower drifting through the vicinity but confidence is too low to
introduce in the TAF for this afternoon. Elsewhere it should remain
dry with no storms anticipated.

Outlook: Outside of the potential for morning MVFR cigs, especially
at INT/GSO, VFR weather is expected at all sites through the end of
the week. Moisture should increase late in the week/this weekend
which could promote showers/storms/non-VFR weather at RDU/FAY/RWI at
times this weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Leins