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365
FXUS65 KREV 300913
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
213 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
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Very warm and dry weather will prevail through the upcoming weekend
with typical afternoon breezes. Forecast signals point toward
significant heat next week with highs projected to exceed 90 degrees
across western NV valleys and reach 80 degrees in Sierra
communities. If you plan to be near area creeks and streams,
exercise caution as they will be moving fast and cold.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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* Weak ridging has begun to make its presence known in the wake of
  the passing shortwave from yesterday. Plan on a warming, drying,
  and overall stable trend through the end of the work week with
  typical afternoon breezes each day. Breezy north winds today will
  switch to our typical westerly winds by Friday afternoon with
  gusts up to 25 mph possible. While storm potential chances are low
  (less than 10%), the warmer temperatures will allow for some
  afternoon cumulus buildups. Strengthening stable layer at around
  650mb should limit vertical development into storms today and
  Friday. Friday holds the best potential at hitting the 90 degree
  mark for the Reno airport, with blended guidance showing a 50%
  chance.

* Flat ridging remains in place for the end of the week into the
  weekend with a couple of waves passing by on Saturday and then
  again on Monday. The waves will allow the warming trend to pause
  in its tracks momentarily, but otherwise we will stay dry with
  breezes and mild afternoons through early next week. Precipitation
  potential with the Saturday wave will remain north of the region
  into OR and ID. The Monday shortwave stands a better chance at a
  few showers (10-20% chance) along the northern tier of NV and CA
  by Monday afternoon.

* Significant Heat for Early June: After the shortwave on Monday,
  high pressure really takes hold across the West. Plan on
  widespread low to mid 90s for the lower valleys and low to mid 80s
  for the higher elevations. There are indications in the ensemble
  members and the deterministic solutions for high pressure to
  linger across the Four Corners region which would lend itself to
  moist, southerly flow streaming into CA and NV. Another feature
  that would exacerbate the storm potential is a cutoff low over
  Southern CA that would enhance the south flow and provide
  additional moisture into the Sierra and western Nevada. Plan on
  some heat concerns for next week as well as the potential for
  thunderstorms Wednesday onwards.

-Edan
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&&

.AVIATION...

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* Operational period through 12Z Saturday: VFR conditions. A few
  cumulus buildups may occur near KMMH, but probability of a storm
  is less than 10%. General northerly winds with daytime wind gusts
  staying around 15-20 kts or less today.

* Dry and stable conditions persist Friday into the weekend with
  more typical afternoon/evening W-SW breezes returning, gusts 25-30
  kts. Saturday winds may materialize early in the day as a
  shortwave passes across the region with enhanced afternoon breezes
  and gusts up to 35 kts.

-Edan
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&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$