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608
FXUS65 KREV 280817
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
117 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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Expect warm and generally dry conditions to continue this week. We
see a pause in the warming trend today and Wednesday as cooler west-
northwest flow prevails over the region. There is another chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms for the Sierra, northeast
California and far western Nevada this afternoon.
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.DISCUSSION...

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Some isolated showers and thunderstorms developed yesterday
afternoon and evening generally along a line from the Eastern Sierra
to the Pine Nut Mountains in far western Nevada, in addition to some
in far northern Lassen county. Similar chances for afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with a 15-20% chance
to build up along the Sierra crest and move eastward into western
Nevada through the evening as afternoon westerly winds kick in. The
only difference today is that these afternoon westerlies are
expected to be much stronger this afternoon with surface gusts 25-30
mph areawide, so storms may track as far east as Mineral and
Churchill counties.

An upper-level trough moves through the region today, which is
the main driver behind those enhanced westerly winds this
afternoon. These gusty winds will keep temperatures moderated a
bit today, with highs perhaps a couple degrees cooler than those
observed yesterday. Further cooling is expected into Wednesday due
to cooler northwesterly flow behind the trough passage. This will
be the coolest day for pretty much the entire foreseeable future,
yet, highs will still run near to a few degrees above average
areawide.

Ensemble clusters suggest a gradual warm-up will resume Thursday
onward as more zonal flow prevails through the weekend and into
early next week. Guidance continues to hint at the chance to reach
the first 90 degrees of the year this weekend for lowest valleys in
far western Nevada. Chances have increased from previous guidance,
as Reno now has a 50% chance to reach 90 degrees each afternoon
Friday through Sunday. Even if we don`t reach 90 this weekend, the
long term pattern looks favorable to make up for it... with a near
80% chance for an anomalous ridge to develop over the western US by
mid next week. Whitlam
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&&

.AVIATION...

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Overall, VFR conditions prevail through today. Enhanced WSW
breezes prevail this afternoon with gusts 20-30 kts for all
regional terminals. There is a 15-20% chance for KHTH-KMMH to see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm between 23-03z. For any cells
that develop over airfields, the main threat will be brief heavy
rainfall and gusty, erratic outflow winds to 35 kts. Whitlam
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$