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180
FXUS61 KRNK 170715
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
315 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week.
This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and a limited
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Warm and humid today.

- Widely scattered & disorganized showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon, mainly across the mountains.

- Potential exists for locally heavy rain where showers and storms
do occur.

Starting the morning off with abundant cloud cover given light
southeasterly winds bringing Atlantic moisture into the region.
This is taking place under a strengthening upper level dome of
high pressure centered over central North Carolina. Cloud cover
and increasing moisture are helping to limit cooling compared
to previous nights, and expect overnight lows for most of our
area will hold in the mid to upper 60s.

Southeasterly windflow will continue to draw abundant Atlantic
moisture to support the development of showers and thunderstorms
across the mountains today. Latest weather model data
suggests that precipitable water values west of the Blue Ridge
will rise into the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range, which is above average
for mid-June.

The main challenge is where rainfall will occur today as the
upper high shifting more overhead would act to suppress shower
and thunderstorm development. But strong daytime heating will
overcome that in spots given the abundant moisture, and
therefore expect hit-and-miss & disorganized showers and storms
will develop during mid-afternoon into the evening across the
mountains, though timing and location of development is
difficult to determine. May see some of this activity spill east
of the Blue Ridge across the foothills, but believe the
Piedmont will remain mostly dry given lower moisture and less
energy for the storms to work with. Movement of this activity
will be slow, so a few locations may receive localized downpours
of an inch or more over a short period of time. Most shower and
thunderstorm activity will diminish toward sunset, though a few
may linger through midnight before finally fading away.

High temperatures will hold mainly in the low to mid 80s across the
mountains given partly to mostly cloudy skies. Areas of the Piedmont
west of Highway 29 will hold in the upper 80s, while low 90s can be
expected further east. Lows tonight will fall back into the mid 60s
to near 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend to ensue.

2) Rain chances will vanish by the middle of the week.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms should retreat westward and fade
after sunset, which will allow the remainder of Monday night to
become dry. Surface high pressure should remain off the East Coast
to provide a southeasterly breeze across the Mid Atlantic during
Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge will
build across the Northeast with 500 mb heights peaking at an
impressive 600 dam just off the coasts of New Jersey and New York.
This ridge should suppress any rain chances by the middle of the
week, and the plentiful sunshine should allow high temperatures to
rise into the lower 80s to the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for the first heat wave of 2024 to arrive just
in time for the summer solstice.

2) A chance of showers and thunderstorms may return by the weekend.

The summer solstice starts at 4:51 PM EDT on Thursday, and it will
definitely feel like summer has arrived as the first heat wave of
2024 takes place across the Mid Atlantic. An anomalously strong
upper level ridge will keep conditions hot and dry through Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures should soar into the mid 80s to the mid 90s
by the end of the week. While heat indices appear to stay below 100
degrees, plans should still be made to have plenty of fluids,
sunscreen, and ways to stay cool if preparing for any outdoor
activities during the latter half of the week.

By Saturday, the models are indicating an upper level trough should
enter the northern Plains. The upper level ridge over the Mid
Atlantic would slowly weaken as the aforementioned trough approaches
the Great Lakes by Sunday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will
start to tick upward in the mountains during Saturday afternoon and
could increase further by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures may begin
to drop slightly as the weekend progresses due to increasing clouds
and the potential for afternoon convection.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Starting the morning off with light southeasterly windflow that
is carrying Atlantic moisture into the lower Mid-Atlantic.
Cloud cover is widespread, with MVFR/IFR ceilings observed along
and west of the crest of the Blue Ridge, while low-end VFR
ceilings are reported across the Piedmont.

For today, ceilings will lift after sunrise given another day of
strong heating, though expect pockets of MVFR ceilings will
remain across the mountains through early afternoon given the
inflow of moist air. By early afternoon, expect the development
of widely scattered, hit-and-miss, disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. These will occur mainly west of the Blue Ridge,
though some may spill over into the foothills during early
evening. Believe the Piedmont area will remain dry. These
storms will be slow-moving, and will have the potential of
producing heavy downpours, which may produce localized reduction
in visibility to less than 1/2SM for brief periods of time.
Most of this activity will begin to diminish toward sunset, but
a few may linger through midnight.

Tonight, expect a return of patchy MVFR/IFR ceilings, with
localized fog for areas that receive significant rainfall.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will cover the region this week. Aside from some
morning river fog in the mountain valleys, conditions are
expected to be primarily VFR. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be low from Tuesday into Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF