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006
FXUS62 KTBW 191810
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
210 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The synoptic pattern shows upper troughing and a surface low
pressure system sitting off the mid-Atlantic and New England states.
The associated surface troughing and frontal boundary extends
southward through the western Atlantic, across Florida and into the
Gulf of Mexico. Abundant moisture continues over SW Florida and the
interior today, enough to support scattered showers and storms this
afternoon. Farther to the west, upper ridging and surface high
pressure extends northeastward from Texas to the Great Lakes.
Starting Friday and continuing into the weekend, the upper troughing
will move eastward, while the frontal boundary dissipates. This will
allow for the upper ridging and surface high pressure to the north
to become the dominant weather features over the weekend and into
next week. Looking at the water vapor imagery, there is some drier
air to the north and west of the area. This drier air will make its
way into Florida through the weekend and into next week with lower
rain chances expected. Daytime highs will top out in the low 90`s
with heat indices reaching 100-103 degrees.

The tropics remain somewhat active with 3 areas of interest that the
National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on. 2 of these areas are
in the central Atlantic and has a 20 and 30 percent chance of
development over the next 7 days. The other area that models are
hinting at development will be in the northwest Caribbean and has a
40 percent chance of development over the next 7 days. None of these
systems pose an immediate threat to Florida, but the one in the
Caribbean will be closely monitored over the coming week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions with no weather restrictions expected through the
period. Winds will remain less than 10 knots.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Showers and storms continue to fire along a weak frontal boundary
that`s extending through the eastern gulf waters. Light northwest
winds less than 10 knots will persist through this evening. By
Friday morning, the front moves southeast and dissipates allowing
for high pressure to build in from the north. This will produce a
northeast through easterly wind flow over the weekend, but remaining
15 knots of less. With high pressure building into the area, some
drier air will filter into the region resulting in lower rain
chances over the weekend and into next week. No headlines are
expected.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Scattered showers and storms expected today in the vicinity of a
weak frontal boundary. High pressure builds into the area over the
weekend with drier air limiting showers and storms. Humidity values
remain above critical levels with no fire weather concerns expected.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  75  90  74  91 /  10  20  10  10
FMY  75  92  74  92 /  30  40  20  30
GIF  73  91  72  91 /  20  20   0  20
SRQ  75  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  10
BKV  71  91  70  92 /  10  20   0  10
SPG  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  10  10
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson