Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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455 FXUS62 KTBW 191151 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 751 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS) Issued at 750 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Some low clouds will linger at the northern terminals for the next couple of hours, then becoming VFR by mid morning. Gusty easterly winds will persist through the day with gusts up to 20 knots possible. SHRA and TSRA will be moving into the area from the east, so will hold TEMPO TSRA at all terminals between 17-22Z this afternoon. Winds and rain chances decrease overnight after 01Z.
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&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Strong easterly flow driven by the ridging to the north and the developing low in the Gulf will continue to dictate our weather for the next couple of days. A pocket of dry air is currently situated over the state, but a couple of waves of moisture with PWs approaching 2 inches will move westward across the peninsula throughout the day. Because of this we have slightly better chances for precipitation today compared to the past couple of days. Based on the timing of the moisture, the rain chances will be focused more during the earlier part of the day, with POPs generally offshore by the evening time frame. The elevated moisture and corresponding rain chances will lead to near normal high temperatures today with everyone seeing upper 80s to lower 90s. For the latter part of the week, a surface trough and upper level low pressure located east of the Bahamas will approach the southeastern coast of the US. While chances of further tropical development is low, it is expected to bring additional moisture to the state. POPs for Thursday and Friday are expected to tick up with elevated rain chances extending through the weekend. PWs throughout the weekend and even into early next week look to solidly reach around 2 inches. Even with decent rain chances for the peninsula over the next several days, QPF values are only in the 1-2 inch range. Temperatures for the end of the week/weekend will reach into the lower 90s for most, and into the middle 90s along the Nature Coast. The elevated humidity will also lead to heat index values over 100 degrees for much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Gusty easterly winds continue for the area leading to choppy seas through Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect, with SCEC for Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Winds will begin to diminish some on Thursday afternoon. With the easterly flow, rain and storm chances will increase each evening as convection moves off- shore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 92 77 / 60 20 40 20 FMY 91 76 93 76 / 60 20 60 30 GIF 90 75 90 74 / 60 20 50 10 SRQ 93 76 95 75 / 60 30 50 30 BKV 91 73 92 72 / 60 20 40 20 SPG 92 80 93 80 / 60 30 50 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close