Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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268 FXUS62 KTBW 191323 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 923 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE...
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Issued at 922 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Strong high pressure north of Bermuda continues to ridge west- southwest over the southeast U.S. Interaction between this high pressure and a tropical wave northeast of the Bahamas and another area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is producing gusty easterly winds over Florida for the next couple of days. The 12Z morning sounding is showing an uptick in moisture from 24 hours ago with a PWAT of 1.61 inches. Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show mostly cloudy skies over west central Florida with some pesky low clouds continuing through the morning. Latest radar is already showing showers and a stray storm or two over the east coast and will slowly make its way westward through the afternoon. No changes needed to current forecast.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS) Issued at 922 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Some low clouds will linger at the northern terminals for the next couple of hours, then becoming VFR by late morning. Gusty easterly winds will persist through the day with gusts up to 20 knots possible. SHRA and TSRA will be moving into the area from the east, so will hold TEMPO TSRA at all terminals between 17-22Z this afternoon. Winds and rain chances decrease overnight after 01Z.
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&& .MARINE...
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Issued at 922 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A tight pressure gradient remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. This is producing gusty easterly winds that has warranted the continuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the eastern gulf through Thursday afternoon. The gradient weakens by Thursday evening with decreasing winds expected for the latter part of the week and into the weekend. Daily afternoon showers and storms will be possible each day through the period.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 92 77 / 60 20 40 20 FMY 91 76 93 76 / 60 20 60 30 GIF 90 75 90 74 / 60 20 50 10 SRQ 93 76 95 75 / 60 30 50 30 BKV 91 73 92 72 / 60 20 40 20 SPG 92 80 93 80 / 60 30 50 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Close