-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
258
FXUS62 KTBW 181204
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
804 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry air aloft continues to deepen as seen in the 12Z TBW sounding
and local ACARs data to keep rain chances very low today. Tight
6-7mb surface pressure gradient over the FL Peninsula and daytime
mixing of strong winds aloft to produce gusty E winds again
today preventing Gulf seabreeze. Lack of afternoon convection and
cloud cover for warm temps well above normal values as well.
These winds will also create dangerous marine and boating
conditions. Latest grids and forecast on track.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Gusty easterly winds to around 25 knots and VFR conditions to
continue with winds diminishing overnight after 04Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Ridging will continue to dominate our weather pattern over the next
couple of days. As the pressure gradient is squeezed over us between
the strong ridge and the deepening low pressure in the western Gulf
of Mexico, breezy easterly winds are expected the next few days.
With this strong ridging overhead, slightly warmer than average
temperatures are expected (lower 90s) over the next couple of days
and the strong easterly flow will focus the warmest temperatures
along the west coast of Florida. Mostly rain free conditions are
expected today as PWs will remain under 1.5 inch and only isolated
thunderstorm chances are expected on Wednesday.

Moisture will begin returning to the area later this week as a
system in the Atlantic approaches the east coast. There still
remains some uncertainty regarding the degree of intensity with
this system, but one thing they do agree on is the increase in
rain chances it brings to the Florida Peninsula as moisture
streams across the state towards the latter half of the week and
into the weekend. Temperatures during this time frame will
continue to run above average, with the warmest temperatures being
felt across the Nature Coast. Lower 90s will be seen across SWFL
through Central Florida, with middle 90s expected across our
northern counties. The warm temperatures along with the increase
in moisture will lead to heat index values in the triple digits
for most of the forecast area during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Strong easterly winds are expected the next few days along with
elevated seas. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through
today and into Wednesday morning. Additional advisories may be
needed before winds finally diminish Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Breezy easterly winds are expected the next few days with high
dispersion expected, but RH values will remain well above critical
thresholds. Winds will diminish by the end of the week along with
increasing rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  77  92  77 /  20  20  40  30
FMY  94  77  91  76 /  20  20  50  30
GIF  92  76  91  75 /  40  30  40  20
SRQ  95  77  94  76 /  20  20  40  30
BKV  94  74  93  72 /  20  20  30  20
SPG  94  80  93  80 /  20  30  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

Davis