Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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607 FXUS63 KTOP 130808 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 308 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Hot and humid Today with afternoon heat indices of 101-110 degrees. A Heat Advisory in effect from noon-8pm today. - Isolated to scattered storms late this afternoon into the evening. These storms could be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main hazards. - Above-normal temperatures continue into early next week.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Early this morning a mid level wave was moving across southern Manitoba into north Dakota heading into northern Minnesota and southwest Ontario. Further south a ridge was present from the Rockies into the southern and central PLains while a mid level low was off the southern CA coast at 07Z. A frontal boundary extended from northern Minnesota into western Nebraska with a moist airmass ahead of it from the Gulf into the upper Midwest. Excessive heat continues to be a concern for today as the mid level ridge builds eastward into Kansas and a thermal axis extending from the Rockies into northeast Kansas this afternoon. 850mb temps are forecast to range from 25-28 degrees Celsius this afternoon and good mixing with breezy southwest winds. Highs this afternoon will range from the low 100s in central Kansas to the lower 90s areas southeast of I-35. Adding in the humidity this afternoon heat indices are forecast to range from 101 to 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today from noon until 8 pm. Attention then turns to convective potential this afternoon and evening. WIth the above mentioned mid level trough moving into the upper Great Lakes the frontal boundary will move southeast into north central and northeast Kansas today, extending from northwest Missouri to a low pressure over south central Kansas by early evening. With the better forcing remaining to the northeast of the area, convergence along the frontal boundary and the erosion of a capping inversion may be enough to initiate storms later this afternoon into the evening hours. The airmass along and ahead of the front will be characterized by 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE, steep mid level lapse rates along with 30 to 40kts of effective shear, which would support severe thunderstorms. Inverted "V" soundings suggest the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The CAMS continue to highlight the 5 to 9 pm time period for the development of the storms. Large hail will also be a concern which may be up to the size of golf balls. The front moves south into southern Kansas later tonight. For Friday, an approaching shortwave trough across the ROckies will cause the front to lift northward through the day as a warm front. Storms are forecast to develop in the high Plains by late Friday afternoon, then track eastward into north central and northern Kansas during the evening and overnight hours. North central Kansas will have the highest probability for storms (30-60 percent) during the evening hours with the areas north of I-70 seeing storms overnight. Shear and instability will favor damaging wind gusts and large hail. A shortwave trough will move across Kansas and Nebraska Saturday and Saturday night keeping chances for showers and storms in the forecast. Again a few of the storms could be severe, mainly near the Nebraska border into Nebraska. Mainly dry conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday and may last into Tuesday as well models are showing the front to remain to the west of the area with precipitation holding off until possible Wednesday. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s Saturday into next week.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected for much of the period. A frontal boundary will approach the terminals and move through MHK around 00Z and at TOP and FOE by 03Z. Isolated TSRA is possible near the front and have added VCTS for now. Winds southerly to start the period will become southwest around 12kts with gusts to 22kts, then decrease and back to the south at TOP and FOE. WInds shift in the 00Z to 03Z time period at the terminals. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...53