879
FXUS65 KABQ 201750 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Modified moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has been seeping into
New Mexico, and as it spreads farther west it will act as a
moderator to the temperatures with daytime highs running a few
degrees cooler than yesterday and several degrees below normal. In
addition, more shower and thunderstorm activity will spread
farther west, and a few strong to severe storms will be possible
in northwestern parts of New Mexico where large hail and damaging
winds may accompany. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast for Friday with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Storms will not be quite as numerous this weekend with
the best chances for rain expected over west central areas of New
Mexico and temperatures warming back to normal. Fewer storms and
warmer temperatures can be expected into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A deepening upper level trough on the west coast, a broad upper high
over the east central US, and a tropical system passing westward
over northern Mexico have all worked in consort to bring deep Gulf
moisture over the forecast area. Today, precipitable water values
from 125-175% of normal are expected, except over 200% of normal
from Gallup to Farmington. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight. Along and west of
the central mountain chain, bulk shear values from 20-35 knots
will be conducive for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop
this afternoon and evening, especially from around Gallup north
and northeastward to the Four Corners and Farmington area, where
instability will be greater and a shortwave trough is forecast to
cross in southwest flow aloft this afternoon. Will issue another
Flash Flood Watch for the south central mountains this afternoon
and tonight, where thunderstorms will again be capable of
producing a quick quarter inch of rain. This is enough to produce
flash flooding on new burn scars, and the antecedent moisture is
definitely in place after 1 to over 3 inches of rain fell in the
Ruidoso area on Wednesday.

Late this afternoon and evening, the gap wind is again forecast to
become fairly strong in the Albuquerque area, where gusts around 50
mph are again expected.

On Friday, a stronger shortwave trough will eject northeastward from
the west coast across the central Rockies, drawing even better
moisture northward over NM in the process.  PWATs are forecast to
climb from 150 to over 200% of normal with the highest values along
and west of the central mountain chain. The greatest instability and
shear will be found along the continental divide and over north
central areas, where some strong to severe storms will be possible
along with locally heavy rainfall. With the unseasonably rich
moisture in place and all the convection, high temperatures today
and Friday will vary from near normal along the western border to
as much as 16 degrees below normal further east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The upper high will stretch and elongate more over the southern
states Friday night into Saturday. This will lead to a reduction
in wind speeds aloft while also limiting synoptic perturbations
into NM, but it will also redistribute the moisture as well,
generally pushing the deeper PWATs westward. This looks to
concentrate higher moisture over west central to southwestern
zones of NM while some drying occurs in northern zones. Also, a
more garden variety of airmass thunderstorms would be expected
Saturday afternoon with more separation between cells that could
keep temperatures warming closer to late June averages.

The monsoon high will then contract and center itself more
directly over NM into Sunday and Monday. Blended guidance seems to
keep the southwestern mountains favored each day, but essentially
isolated to scattered storms are expected to initiate from there
and over the central mountain chain. While the footprints of rain
will be reducing daily, much more sluggish storm motion would be
expected with a threat for locally heavy downpours.

This trend continues into the middle of next week with the high
pacing on top of NM, temperatures rising slightly above average
and moisture getting recycled daily for isolated to scattered
storms, generally over the climatologically favored initiation
points. A surface wind shift could bring some additional moisture
to the northeastern zones Tuesday and Wednesday before the monsoon
high weakens and becomes less defined over NM on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Abundant moisture over the region and isolated SHRA this morning
will give way to increasing coverage of SHRA/TS this afternoon.
Near full sunshine across northwest NM with unstable conditions
will allow activity along and west of the Cont Divide to erupt by
1pm then move slowly northeast around KGUP and KFMN. This activity
may last for the entire night but with the greatest impact period
between 4pm and 8pm with locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, and
hail. Slower convective initiation is expected for areas along and
east of the central mt chain with more periods of rain, showers,
and low stratus through tonight. A slug of moderate stratiform to
locally heavy rainfall is still expected to move north along the
central mt chain from near KSRR to KCQC and KLVS overnight thru
Friday morning. This activity will have periods of IFR stratus
and patchy fog.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Deep Gulf moisture will remain over the forecast area with
widespread wetting precipitation and a threat of locally heavy
rainfall again today and Friday. Breezy to windy conditions will
continue today over western and northern areas, while the strong gap
wind continues in the central valley and strengthens for a time this
evening.  Peak gusts should reach around 50 mph in Albuquerque below
Tijeras Canyon this evening. After widespread below normal
temperatures today and Friday, a mid level high pressure system over
the eastern US will migrate westward over NM this weekend through
the first half of next week warming temperatures above normal. A
monsoon-like weather pattern will then continue with daily rounds
of scattered thunderstorms favoring central and western areas.
Rain amounts are forecast to decrease significantly starting
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  61  87  62 /  70  70  80  80
Dulce...........................  83  48  79  50 /  60  70  80  80
Cuba............................  81  55  79  54 /  20  60  80  60
Gallup..........................  90  52  88  54 /  60  80  60  70
El Morro........................  84  57  82  54 /  30  50  70  70
Grants..........................  87  54  84  55 /  20  50  80  70
Quemado.........................  86  59  84  56 /  20  20  70  60
Magdalena.......................  82  60  79  61 /  20  60  80  40
Datil...........................  80  58  78  57 /  20  50  80  50
Reserve.........................  91  55  86  53 /  10  20  60  50
Glenwood........................  94  67  89  66 /  10  20  60  40
Chama...........................  78  46  74  48 /  70  60  80  70
Los Alamos......................  78  59  75  59 /  40  70  90  60
Pecos...........................  74  56  73  56 /  50  70  90  60
Cerro/Questa....................  77  47  75  51 /  50  60  80  50
Red River.......................  70  44  67  45 /  60  70  80  50
Angel Fire......................  70  43  71  47 /  50  40  80  50
Taos............................  80  53  77  53 /  30  60  70  50
Mora............................  73  50  72  51 /  50  60  90  50
Espanola........................  86  61  83  59 /  20  50  90  50
Santa Fe........................  78  59  77  60 /  20  70  90  60
Santa Fe Airport................  82  60  81  58 /  20  70  90  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  87  64  83  66 /  40  60  70  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  64  84  67 /  30  50  50  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  64  86  60 /  30  50  50  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  89  66  84  65 /  20  50  50  50
Belen...........................  91  63  88  63 /  20  40  50  40
Bernalillo......................  89  64  85  64 /  20  50  50  40
Bosque Farms....................  91  61  87  59 /  30  40  50  40
Corrales........................  90  65  85  63 /  20  50  50  50
Los Lunas.......................  91  63  87  61 /  20  40  50  40
Placitas........................  85  63  83  65 /  30  60  60  50
Rio Rancho......................  89  65  84  65 /  20  50  50  50
Socorro.........................  92  67  88  67 /  20  50  50  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  79  58  77  60 /  30  60  80  40
Tijeras.........................  83  60  79  63 /  40  60  70  40
Edgewood........................  81  58  78  60 /  30  50  90  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  56  79  58 /  20  50  90  40
Clines Corners..................  74  55  74  55 /  30  60  90  40
Mountainair.....................  82  57  79  60 /  40  40  80  40
Gran Quivira....................  82  57  79  58 /  40  50  80  30
Carrizozo.......................  83  63  81  63 /  40  60  70  30
Ruidoso.........................  72  58  73  53 /  60  80  90  30
Capulin.........................  75  55  77  55 /  30  30  50  10
Raton...........................  78  56  80  57 /  30  30  50  20
Springer........................  80  57  81  59 /  50  40  70  20
Las Vegas.......................  72  56  72  56 /  60  70  90  40
Clayton.........................  81  61  82  64 /  20  20  30   5
Roy.............................  77  59  77  61 /  50  60  70  20
Conchas.........................  83  63  84  66 /  40  50  60  20
Santa Rosa......................  77  61  80  63 /  50  60  70  20
Tucumcari.......................  83  63  84  66 /  30  40  40  10
Clovis..........................  79  64  84  64 /  60  40  30  10
Portales........................  79  65  85  64 /  50  50  30  10
Fort Sumner.....................  80  64  83  65 /  40  50  40  20
Roswell.........................  83  69  87  69 /  70  70  40  10
Picacho.........................  75  61  80  60 /  80  80  80  20
Elk.............................  73  58  77  56 /  80  80  80  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ201>206-211.

Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ219.

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215-229.

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...42