Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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173 FXUS65 KABQ 172325 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 525 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Drier and warm Wednesday and Thursday behind today`s storm system with some breezy southwest winds across the highlands and northeast plains. Shower and storm chances return to eastern areas Friday and Saturday ahead of another Pacific storm. Dry and breezy conditions across western and central areas with cooler temperatures Saturday. Dry and cool areawide Sunday with generally warm and dry conditions early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A unseasonably deep 563 dam upper low is spinning over northern Utah this afternoon progressing to the northeast towards the northern Rockies. A punch of much drier mid level air is moving across the southwest at the base of this low. This drier mid level air with higher moisture at the surface (PWATs > 1 inch) along with the progression of a Pacific cold front has resulted in the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms across central NM and the central mountain chain with fast motion the northeast at around 25 to 35 mph. Some of these storms are strong to severe due to effective bulk shear values of 35 to 45 kts and MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Main threats with these storms as they move into eastern NM will be severe wind gusts and large hail. Southwest to west winds along and behind the front are pretty gusty with several locations across central and western gusting around 30 to 40 mph. Central areas will clear out later this afternoon and early evening as the drier air behind the Pacific cold front sweeps through. Strong to severe storms across eastern NM will exit into West Texas around 9 PM with the Pacific front across eastern NM tonight into tomorrow morning. Dewpoints across western and central will drop to the mid 30s to low 40s and this drier air along with clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to cool efficiently into the upper 30s and low 40s across northern and western valley areas with low 50s across the middle and lower RGV. Some lingering surface moisture across valley locations in the Gila, Tusa, and Jemez Mountains and the Estancia Valley could result in some patchy fog for these respective locations. Surface moisture will also linger across the southeast plains and with much drier air moving aloft, patchy fog cannot be ruled out here as well, but a light southeast wind could help prevent fog development. Any fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. The 554 dam upper low moves northeast across the northern Rockies Wednesday with dry west southwest flow across New Mexico. Winds will be breezy across northeast NM at the base of a surface lee low over eastern CO. This westerly flow will push higher surface moisture across the eastern plains into West Texas with any storms that could develop along the dryline doing so east of the state line. Westerly flow will offset any cooling behind the Pacific front with near to slightly below average temperatures across western and central New Mexico and slightly above average temperatures across eastern NM due to downsloping effects. Clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures Wednesday night. Higher surface moisture moves back into far southeast NM due to upper level flow backing in response to the next upper low digging south along the California coast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Another unseasonably deep upper low (around 2 to 3 standard deviations below average) will be over southern San Joaquin Valley with an 592 dam upper high over central Texas on Thursday. Brisk southwest flow will remain over New Mexico with PWATs below 0.5 inches outside of southeast NM. Higher moisture in the form of PWATs around an inch and dewpoints in the low 50s will be across southeast NM due to surface return flow from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the aformentioned upper low. Mid level capping will be strong enough to prevent any activity to develop across this part of the state. Temperatures on Thursday will be a couple of degrees warmer compared to Wednesday under mostly clear skies. The upper low moves southeast over the CA Inland Empire during the day Friday and just south of Las Vegas, NV Friday evening. Increasing upper level divergence aloft ahead of the upper low combined with higher surface and mid level moisture along and east of the central mountain chain due to southeast return flow at the surface with result in the development of scattered showers and storms across this part of the state. Showers and storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe due to higher MLCAPE values around 1000 to 1500 J/kg along with effective bulk shear values around 35 to 45 kts. Central and western areas will be dry with breezy southwest flow. Deterministic and ensemble clusters are in good agreement on the track of the upper low Friday night into Saturday with the upper low moving northeast over the Four Corners midday Saturday and into the central Great Plains come Saturday night. This track will keep some shower and storm activity going across northeast and east central NM Friday night with another round Saturday afternoon before drier air moves in from the west behind the Pacific cold front. Some storms across northeast NM Saturday afternoon could become strong to severe due to higher effective bulk shear and MLCAPE values. Temperatures cool by 5 to 10 degrees across western and central NM on Saturday behind the Pacific front. Drier air behind the system will allow temperature to efficiently cool Saturday night Sunday morning with mid 30s to low 40s across northern and western valley locations, 40s to near 50 in the middle and lower RGV and 50s to near 60 across eastern NM. Sunday will be dry with slightly below average temperatures across eastern NM behind a backdoor front. Forecast uncertainty increases next week due to differences in the upper level pattern. Slightly higher moisture from low level return flow could bring some shower and storm chances to eastern areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Severe thunderstorms continue to advance toward the TX line with scattered coverage still over portions of the eastern plains. Weaker thunderstorm activity also remains over portions of the northern mountains. Strong and erratic gusty winds and hail will be possible with any of these cells before overall activity either dies down or advances fully into TX this evening b/w 01Z to 03Z. Prevailing southwesterly winds calm this evening as well, returning by 17Z to 19Z most areas Wednesday. Drier air pushing in from the west today will overtake much of the state to the TX line preventing another round of showers and storms from developing Wednesday afternoon. Some patchy fog is possible tonight in western and northern mountain valley locations, including KAXX. Lastly, LLWS will be possible at KTCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A drier airmass will move tomorrow and Thursday for much of the area before another next upper low approaches on Friday. This system is forecast to bring back chances for wetting storms to eastern NM Friday and Saturday. The upper low will also bring dry and breezy to windy conditions to western and portions of central NM. Cooler conditions will prevail over the weekend in the wake of the departing system with generally warm and dry conditions early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 45 76 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 33 73 35 78 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 40 73 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 37 77 40 81 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 41 75 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 37 79 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 42 77 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 48 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 42 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 42 79 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 53 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 33 68 38 72 / 10 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 52 74 55 78 / 10 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 46 74 49 79 / 20 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 71 44 74 / 30 0 0 5 Red River....................... 35 62 40 67 / 30 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 31 68 27 72 / 40 0 0 5 Taos............................ 38 75 40 78 / 30 0 0 5 Mora............................ 39 74 43 78 / 20 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 46 80 46 84 / 20 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 48 75 52 79 / 20 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 78 48 82 / 20 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 80 58 84 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 82 55 86 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 84 52 88 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 82 55 86 / 5 0 0 5 Belen........................... 51 85 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 50 83 52 87 / 5 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 48 84 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 51 83 53 87 / 5 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 51 85 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 80 53 84 / 10 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 52 82 54 86 / 5 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 55 87 55 90 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 75 49 79 / 10 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 49 78 51 82 / 5 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 43 79 45 83 / 5 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 81 42 84 / 5 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 45 77 48 80 / 5 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 46 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 47 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 55 83 57 87 / 0 0 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 51 76 53 80 / 0 0 5 10 Capulin......................... 44 78 48 80 / 40 0 0 5 Raton........................... 44 81 45 83 / 40 0 0 5 Springer........................ 44 83 44 86 / 30 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 43 77 45 81 / 10 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 56 85 56 87 / 50 0 0 5 Roy............................. 49 80 49 84 / 30 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 55 89 52 91 / 30 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 53 87 52 88 / 20 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 57 91 55 93 / 40 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 62 91 62 92 / 60 5 5 5 Portales........................ 62 92 63 93 / 60 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 57 90 56 92 / 20 0 5 5 Roswell......................... 65 95 65 96 / 20 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 55 89 56 91 / 5 0 5 5 Elk............................. 53 85 55 88 / 0 0 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...24