Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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841 FXUS65 KABQ 180827 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 227 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Patchy fog may develop in southeastern NM early this morning. Dry weather with a light breeze will prevail across the area today and tomorrow. Another storm system will impact the region Friday and Saturday, bringing strong to severe storms to eastern NM, then ushering in cooler temps for the weekend. Rain associated with another storm system is possible in the east early next week, but confidence is low. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, the upper low is pulling northeast out of the central Rockies while the westerlies bring in much drier air across the Desert SW and southern Rockies. The 00Z upper air analysis showed dewpoint depressions of 30-40 degrees across AZ and southern NM, but a moist near-surface layer is holding on across the east central and southeast plains where areas of low stratus/fog will likely develop toward sunrise. Today will be pleasant with less wind and void of convection. Another upper level low, currently diving south toward the northern CA coast per the latest water vapor imagery, will continue south along the coast through Thursday, bringing backing winds aloft and rising pressure heights as ridging amplifies somewhat ahead of this upper air feature. The result will be 2-5 degrees of warming Thursday and daytime temperatures that are above normal everywhere except the northwest plateau. Low stratus/fog development is possible again late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the southeast and east central plains as Gulf moisture is drawn north and west due to the approaching upper low, however forecast confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Another early season trough will approach the state from the west late week, impacting the area Friday through early Sunday. A southerly afternoon breeze will prevail in most areas Thursday afternoon as warmer air is advected in from the south out ahead of a Pacific storm system. The trough moves into the Mojave desert on Friday, increasing southerly winds to a strong breeze. This in combination with a ridge over TX will pull Gulf moisture northward into eastern NM. Models are in good agreement that this will create at least scattered storms along and east of the central mtn chain Friday afternoon through the evening. Moisture remains in place across the east as the base of the trough moves eastward into northern NM on Saturday. Models have gotten into better agreement on the depth of the trough as it moves overhead, but there are still some timing discrepancies. A faster moving trough shown by the GEFS ensemble would have less time to interact with moisture, likely producing less rainfall. On the other hand, the slower moving solution posed by the EC and CMC ensembles would bring more rain to northern and eastern areas on Saturday afternoon. Strong shear and instability in the east will likely support a severe threat again Saturday afternoon. A cold front will cross the area as the base of the trough swings through, dropping temps to the coolest values of the season thus far Saturday night. Temps will drop below freezing in many mountain valleys and temps could dip into the upper 40s along the middle Rio Grande Valley near Albuquerque. As the trough exits into the High Plains, it could send another front through the area from the northeast. A low-end east wind event is possible if the front makes it through the central mountain chain. After Sunday, the synoptic pattern could get messy and there is poor agreement among global models. There is a chance of rain in central and eastern areas early next week, but confidence is low given the high uncertainty. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for patches of low stratus/fog that could develop overnight across the east central/southeast plains and southwest mountains. KROW may be impacted by low stratus/fog early Wednesday morning, but forecast confidence too low to include in TAF at this time. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will develop Wednesday afternoon across eastern NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A warming/drying trend is in play through Thursday, with temperatures trending above normal most areas. An upper low will approach from over SoCal Friday, drawing moisture north into NM and resulting in a round of wetting storms along/east of the central mountain chain. Dry and breezy conditions will prevail Friday afternoon across western NM as the stronger winds aloft associated with the approaching upper low pivot over the area. The upper low will move over Saturday, bringing breezy/windy and cooler conditions with chances for wetting storms across eastern NM and possibly the northern mountains. Lower forecast confidence beyond Sunday due to differences among the 00Z medium range model solutions, but a backdoor front may bring chances for wetting storms back Tue/Wed of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 77 44 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 72 37 78 38 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 74 44 77 47 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 77 38 82 39 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 75 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 79 37 83 42 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 78 43 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 80 51 82 55 / 0 0 5 5 Datil........................... 78 44 80 48 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 79 42 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 67 38 72 40 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 74 53 78 53 / 0 0 5 10 Pecos........................... 74 47 79 52 / 0 0 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 43 75 46 / 0 0 5 5 Red River....................... 61 40 66 42 / 0 0 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 67 31 72 30 / 0 0 5 5 Taos............................ 74 39 78 43 / 0 0 5 5 Mora............................ 74 42 78 45 / 0 0 5 5 Espanola........................ 80 48 84 46 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 75 51 79 54 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 47 83 49 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 58 85 61 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 56 87 57 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 51 88 55 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 86 52 89 52 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 83 54 87 55 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 84 50 88 52 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 83 52 87 56 / 0 0 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 85 51 88 54 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 80 55 85 56 / 0 0 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 82 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 88 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 75 51 79 53 / 0 0 5 10 Tijeras......................... 78 50 82 55 / 0 0 5 10 Edgewood........................ 79 48 83 49 / 0 0 5 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 43 85 45 / 0 0 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 77 48 81 51 / 0 0 5 5 Mountainair..................... 79 50 83 52 / 0 0 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 80 50 84 53 / 0 0 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 84 59 87 60 / 0 0 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 76 54 80 56 / 0 0 10 5 Capulin......................... 77 48 80 51 / 0 0 5 5 Raton........................... 81 44 83 47 / 0 0 5 5 Springer........................ 83 44 86 46 / 0 0 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 77 45 82 49 / 0 0 5 5 Clayton......................... 85 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 80 51 84 54 / 0 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 89 54 92 59 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 87 54 89 57 / 0 0 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 90 57 93 62 / 0 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 90 63 93 65 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 92 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 90 58 92 62 / 0 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 95 66 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 89 59 91 60 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 86 56 89 57 / 0 0 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...11