902
FXUS65 KABQ 212124
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
324 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Numerous showers and storms are expected around the
region today, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding over
recent burn scars. In addition, strong to severe storms may produce
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and torrential downpours west of
the Rio Grande Valley. Showers and storms will focus over the
western high terrain tomorrow, but flash flooding cannot be ruled
out again over recent burn scars. Scattered storm chances will stick
around through early next week as temperatures rise to 5-10 degrees
above seasonal averages. Precipitation chances and the accompanied
flash flood risk may trend up again mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A sub-tropical atmosphere is in place across the state with moisture
content ranging from 2 to 4 standard deviations above normal. As a
result, rainfall will be more efficient than is typical and surface
observations from this morning suggest that radar may be
underestimating rainfall totals. Precipitation across the east is
more stratiform, but clearing this morning has allowed for more
robust convection to fire in the Four Corners region. A shortwave
over the area is providing 20-40KT of bulk shear across this area
which will help to organize storms as they quickly move to the
northeast. Despite the relatively fast storm motions (around 20-
30KT), training storms will be capable of producing flash flooding,
particularly over locations that received heavy rainfall yesterday.
Hi-res models are in good agreement that storms will eventually
organize into a line around 6PM this evening in an area extending
roughly from Grants northward to Chama. This area and locations just
east will likely receive the heaviest rainfall, with upwards of 3"
possible. As the line approaches the Rio Grande Valley late in the
evening, stabilization will likely result in decreasing rainfall
rates. That being said, a few hours of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall cannot be ruled out in Santa Fe and Albuquerque. As
previously mentioned, a relatively deep warm cloud layer will
promote efficient rainfall rates so it won`t take much to produce a
quick 0.25-0.75" of rain. Furthermore, the Flash Flood Watch for the
HPCC burn scar was extended through 6AM tomorrow since HREF guidance
is continuing to storms sticking over that area past midnight. The
southern half of the scar will be at greatest risk for flooding with
the southwest flow, but cannot rule out heavy rainfall making it to
the northern Sangre de Cristo mountains as well.

Showery precipitation will linger over the western and southwest
high terrain through the morning hours, potentially stabilizing the
atmosphere too much for robust convection on Saturday afternoon.
That being said, PWATs will still be 2-3 standard deviations above
average so if skies do clear early afternoon, convection is likely
to occur. With high pressure sliding overhead, slow and erratic
storm motion will favor locally heavy downpours over the mountains,
including over recent burn scars.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

With an elongated High to the south, shower and storm activity will
focus along and north of I-40 on Sunday. With PWATs remaining around
1" or greater across the area, any storms will have the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding.
Storm motions will be slow as well from the west to the east.
Moisture will continue to recycle over the state Monday and Tuesday
as high pressure shifts overhead and intensifies. The stronger
subsidence aloft will help temperatures rise above seasonal
averages, resulting in a return of heat-related illness concerns,
particularly Tuesday. Despite the subsidence aloft, PWATs should
remain 100-200% of normal, supporting afternoon thunderstorm
development over the high terrain each afternoon. Long-term ensemble
guidance suggests that the ridge will begin to slide southward into
northern Mexico by the middle of the week as troughing develops over
the Pacific Northwest. This will result in another uptick in storm
chances, particularly across the northern half of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A moist sub-tropical airmass and its interaction with a shortwave
across the northwest will create numerous showers and storms
across the area today through the overnight hours. At 18Z, satellite
shows a shield of mid-clouds across the majority of the region,
with only a small window of clearing across the northwest. Showers
are increasing in coverage across the eastern and south-central
portions of the area as moisture streams in from the south. These
showers will grow up into storms within the next few hours as the
atmosphere destabilizes. Several strong to severe storms are
possible across the western portion of the forecast area mid-
afternoon through the evening, with wind gusts up to 50KT and
large hail both potentially impacting KFMN and KGUP. Training
storms are expected to congeal together into a line as it moves
eastward towards the Rio Grande Valley late this evening. Showers
with embedded storms are expected to continue through as late as
15Z in central and western NM.

MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail across most of the area
through the TAF period, although brief IFR conditions are possible
under heavier storms, which will be most likely in the western
portion of the state.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A sub-tropical airmass will generate numerous showers and storms
around the region today through the overnight hours. The heaviest
rainfall will focus across the western half of the state, but
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible anywhere. In
general, 24-hour rainfall totals will range from 0.25" to 1.5" with
locally as much as 3-4" over the Jemez mountains and surrounding
areas. All this moisture will make for an excellent overnight RH
recovery areawide. Tomorrow will likely be drier than today, with
scattered showers and storms focusing over the western high terrain.
Scattered showers and storms will continue each afternoon/evening
through Monday as moisture recycles. Temperatures rise back above
seasonal averages early next week, peaking on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Widespread to numerous storms likely return Wednesday and Thursday
next week as another surge of moisture comes up from the south. With
high pressure overhead, winds will generally be light through the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  89  63  91 /  60  20   0  10
Dulce...........................  54  83  53  88 /  80  20   0  10
Cuba............................  57  82  61  83 /  90  30  10  30
Gallup..........................  59  85  59  86 /  60  50  20  40
El Morro........................  57  80  58  80 /  80  70  40  50
Grants..........................  58  82  60  83 /  80  60  30  50
Quemado.........................  59  82  59  81 /  70  80  60  70
Magdalena.......................  61  81  64  83 /  50  60  40  60
Datil...........................  58  79  59  81 /  60  80  50  70
Reserve.........................  60  85  59  89 /  50  80  60  60
Glenwood........................  66  88  67  96 /  50  70  50  60
Chama...........................  52  77  52  81 /  90  40   5  20
Los Alamos......................  58  80  65  82 /  90  50  10  40
Pecos...........................  57  80  60  83 /  60  40  20  50
Cerro/Questa....................  52  79  54  81 /  70  40  10  40
Red River.......................  48  70  49  74 /  60  40  10  40
Angel Fire......................  51  75  49  76 /  50  40  10  40
Taos............................  56  83  57  84 /  70  30  10  30
Mora............................  54  80  56  81 /  50  50  10  50
Espanola........................  61  86  64  90 /  70  30  10  30
Santa Fe........................  59  82  63  84 /  70  40  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  60  85  63  87 /  70  30  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  87  68  89 /  60  40  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  88  70  91 /  60  30  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  90  69  93 /  60  30  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  89  70  91 /  70  30  20  30
Belen...........................  66  90  69  93 /  50  40  30  30
Bernalillo......................  65  89  69  92 /  70  30  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  66  90  68  93 /  60  30  20  30
Corrales........................  65  89  68  92 /  70  30  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  66  90  69  93 /  60  30  30  30
Placitas........................  63  86  68  87 /  70  30  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  65  89  69  91 /  70  30  20  30
Socorro.........................  67  91  70  96 /  40  40  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  82  63  82 /  60  40  20  40
Tijeras.........................  61  84  64  85 /  60  40  20  40
Edgewood........................  60  84  63  86 /  50  40  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  60  86  61  86 /  40  40  20  40
Clines Corners..................  57  82  61  81 /  30  40  20  40
Mountainair.....................  59  84  62  85 /  40  40  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  59  84  63  86 /  30  50  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  63  87  67  91 /  30  30  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  57  77  60  81 /  40  40  20  40
Capulin.........................  59  83  59  83 /  30  30  10  50
Raton...........................  58  86  60  86 /  20  30  10  40
Springer........................  60  88  60  88 /  30  30  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  58  83  60  78 /  40  40  20  40
Clayton.........................  65  91  66  89 /  10  20  10  30
Roy.............................  61  87  64  86 /  20  40  20  40
Conchas.........................  66  93  69  92 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  65  91  67  88 /  20  30  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  68  94  70  93 /  10  10  20  10
Clovis..........................  64  91  67  94 /  10   5  10  10
Portales........................  66  92  67  94 /  10   5   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  67  92  68  93 /  20  10  10  10
Roswell.........................  68  96  70  99 /  10   5   5  10
Picacho.........................  62  88  66  91 /  40  30  10  30
Elk.............................  59  85  62  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ201>207-210-211-214-215-
217-229.

Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16