413
FXUS65 KABQ 211200
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

An upper level disturbance will move out of the Great Basin and
into the Rockies today while rich moisture remains in place over
New Mexico. This will lead to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across northern and central areas of the state today
and well into the evening. Several areas could observe heavy
downpours, and a few strong to severe storms are also possible,
especially in northwestern New Mexico where large hail and
damaging winds could occur. Temperatures today will be cooler than
normal for late June, running in the 70s and 80s in most
locations. Showers and thunderstorms will not be as numerous on
Saturday and Sunday, but there is still the potential for isolated
to scattered activity that could produce locally heavy rainfall
under slower moving storms. Through the weekend and the first part
of next week, temperatures will rise, turning hot in many lower
elevation locations while isolated to scattered showers and storms
redevelop daily over the mountains and nearby areas. Rain chances
will increase again Wednesday and Thursday of next week when more
moisture will arrive from the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Today and tonight, a shortwave trough will cross the northern and
central Rockies drawing rich subtropical moisture northward over the
forecast area. By this afternoon precipitable water values are
forecast to vary around 1.25-1.60 inches, or from 150-250 percent
of normal. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast today and this evening, then the focus will be west of
the central mountain chain after midnight. With the trough passing
to our north, shear and instability profiles look sufficient for
severe thunderstorms to develop over northwest and west central
areas, where large hail and damaging winds will be the greatest
threat. Isolated tornados cannot be ruled out, either. Given how
much antecedent moisture has improved over the last 48 hours, and
some very sensitive locations due to recent flash flooding and
recent burn scars, will issue a Flash Flood Watch for northwest
and west central areas for this afternoon and tonight, as well as
for the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountain Burn Scars.

On Saturday, drier air will begin to filter over northwest areas
from the northwest in the wake of the aforementioned upper level
trough. However, PWATs across the forecast area are forecast to
remain around 150-250 percent of normal. A high pressure system
over the Louisiana area will extend a ridge axis westward across
TX and southern NM, preventing a further influx of moisture and
introducing enough of a cap to induce a downtick in thunderstorm
coverage. Scattered thunderstorms should favor the area from the
east slopes of the central mountain chain westward on Saturday,
with more numerous cells over west central and southwest areas.
Depending on the antecedent moisture and sensitive spots from
today`s storms, another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for
Saturday. After high temperatures varying from near to 18 degrees
below 1991-2020 averages today, readings will rebound a few to
several degrees in most places on Saturday while remaining on the
cool side.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The upper high will remain outstretched across the southern
states on Sunday with heights pushing upwards of 592 to 594
decameters at 500 mb. This will keep temperatures warming, almost
reaching normalcy in all zones Sunday afternoon. Light steering
flow aloft will likely distribute the deepest moisture over the
southwestern mountains to the northeastern corner of NM, and
convective initiation will mimic climatology albeit a bit earlier
than normal. Storm coverage will be a bit subdued, but the slow
storm motion is always concerning for any single strong storm
capable of producing a heavy downpour.

Temperatures will keep escalating into Monday and Tuesday as the
high slowly consolidates, first over southern AZ, NM and TX on
Monday and then closer to the AZ-NM border on Tuesday.
Temperatures would peak on Tuesday with many lower elevation areas
reaching the upper 90s and triple digits, introducing heat
illness concerns. Moisture will get recycled, but overall storm
coverage would likely decrease a bit more each day with isolated
to scattered cells favoring the higher terrain of NM and
specifically the southwestern zones.

A shortwave trough moving through the southern plains and
eventually the lower MS valley Tuesday and Tuesday night will send
a moist surface boundary westward into NM. While surface dewpoints
will not have declined too much, this surface boundary will
recharge and reinforce higher dewpoints into the area as the upper
high weakens a bit. This will moderate the temperatures some while
fueling more shower and storm development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas of low clouds will continue to produce MVFR and IFR
conditions over north central and eastern areas for much of the
morning, while scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue to stream northward along and east of the central
mountain chain. This afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will develop. Some thunderstorms west of
the Tusas Mountains, Jemez Mountains, and Mount Taylor will be
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, wet
microbursts will be capable of producing brief, localized, and
erratic wind gusts near 45 kt. After midnight, scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor central and western
areas, with little or no activity over the south central mountains
and eastern plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

With deep Gulf moisture in place, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will return today and Saturday with a risk of locally
heavy rainfall.  Winds will be weaker in many places today, except
for breezy to windy conditions east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. A high pressure system aloft will move over the forecast
area from the east Sunday through mid week, and moisture will
recycle with daily rounds of scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms favoring central and western areas through Tuesday.
Wetting footprints will shrink in size through this period, and high
temperatures will climb above 1991-2020 averages areawide.
Tuesday night into Wednesday a moist backdoor front is forecast to
push into the area increasing thunderstorm coverage and wetness
for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  61  88  60 /  90  70  10   0
Dulce...........................  81  48  85  48 /  70  90  20   0
Cuba............................  78  55  82  57 /  60  80  40  10
Gallup..........................  88  52  86  54 /  60  70  40  20
El Morro........................  82  56  81  56 /  70  80  70  30
Grants..........................  83  53  85  55 /  70  70  70  20
Quemado.........................  83  59  84  57 /  50  70  80  50
Magdalena.......................  76  61  83  63 /  50  50  70  40
Datil...........................  75  59  80  59 /  50  50  80  40
Reserve.........................  86  55  88  54 /  40  40  80  50
Glenwood........................  88  69  93  66 /  30  40  70  40
Chama...........................  75  47  80  48 /  60  90  30   5
Los Alamos......................  75  60  82  64 /  60  80  40  10
Pecos...........................  72  57  82  59 /  80  60  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  73  48  80  50 /  50  60  30  10
Red River.......................  68  48  73  45 /  40  50  40  10
Angel Fire......................  71  45  76  43 /  50  50  30  10
Taos............................  78  54  84  54 /  40  60  20  10
Mora............................  74  51  82  52 /  80  50  40  10
Espanola........................  83  60  90  62 /  50  70  30  10
Santa Fe........................  76  59  83  63 /  70  70  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  78  60  86  61 /  70  70  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  65  89  67 /  50  70  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  64  90  69 /  20  60  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  64  92  62 /  20  60  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  66  90  69 /  20  70  30  20
Belen...........................  86  63  92  65 /  20  60  40  30
Bernalillo......................  85  65  91  67 /  20  70  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  86  61  92  61 /  20  60  40  20
Corrales........................  85  64  92  66 /  20  70  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  85  64  92  63 /  20  60  40  20
Placitas........................  81  64  88  66 /  50  70  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  84  65  90  68 /  20  70  30  10
Socorro.........................  86  67  93  70 /  50  50  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  59  82  63 /  60  60  40  20
Tijeras.........................  77  61  85  64 /  60  60  40  20
Edgewood........................  76  57  85  61 /  70  50  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  55  87  58 /  70  50  40  20
Clines Corners..................  71  55  81  58 /  80  50  30  20
Mountainair.....................  75  58  84  61 /  70  40  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  76  58  85  62 /  70  40  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  78  63  88  69 /  80  30  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  70  56  80  56 /  90  30  40  20
Capulin.........................  75  56  83  56 /  40  20  20  10
Raton...........................  79  57  87  57 /  40  20  20  10
Springer........................  80  59  89  59 /  60  20  30  10
Las Vegas.......................  70  56  82  57 /  80  50  30  20
Clayton.........................  80  66  90  64 /  20  20  10  10
Roy.............................  74  61  87  62 /  70  20  20  20
Conchas.........................  81  66  93  66 /  60  20  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  75  62  89  64 /  70  20  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  81  66  93  67 /  40  20   5  20
Clovis..........................  81  64  91  66 /  40  20   0  10
Portales........................  83  64  93  67 /  40  20   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  80  65  92  67 /  50  20   5  10
Roswell.........................  88  69  95  71 /  50  10   5   5
Picacho.........................  80  60  89  64 /  80  20  30  10
Elk.............................  79  56  88  60 /  80  20  30   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for
NMZ201>207-210-211-217.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214-
215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44