Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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547 FXUS65 KABQ 211123 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 523 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A storm system will move east across the region today and tonight, bringing windy conditions and good chances for showers and storms favoring north central and eastern NM. Some storms may become severe across eastern NM and produce large hail and damaging winds. Storms will produce heavy rain and potential for flash flooding across the northeast quarter of the state, with an elevated threat for burn scar flooding. Cooler and quieter conditions will prevail Sunday and Monday, followed by chances for showers and storms across eastern New Mexico going into mid week. A drying and warming trend is forecast going into the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A deep upper low is currently overtaking the lower Colorado river basin at the CA-AZ border, and this feature will trek northeastward over the Four Corners by mid afternoon before lifting into eastern CO late tonight. Rich moisture is in place over eastern NM due to prolonged warm, moist air advection that has been ongoing over the past 30 hours or so, and PWATs will range from 1.0 up to 1.5 inch with highest values near the eastern NM-TX border. The low will bring a large swath of lift and upward forcing with a diffluent 110 kt jet nosing ahead of it into NM at 300 mb. Currently, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are ongoing over eastern zones, and these will undergo some ebbs and flows through the morning with most CAMs suggesting a big uptick in coverage after dawn over the northeastern quadrant of the state where strong diffluence will be located. This will create some extensive areas of low clouds and keep things somewhat stable, but breaks in the clouds are expected to multiply into the afternoon, destabilizing the boundary layer. HREF suggests 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE by mid to late afternoon over the southeastern counties of the CWA with northeastern ones gaining some stability due to the backdoor segment of the front that will be moving in. Backed easterly surface flow is progged in the east central zones, and this will add a significant component to the directional shear profiles with the HREF painting 200-400 m2/s2 of 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the late afternoon hours. This will not only create a heavy rain, large hail, and damaging wind threat but also introduce a slight tornado threat for east central to southeastern NM this afternoon and early this evening. A Flood Watch will be issued for northeastern to east central NM where fast-moving, but heavy raining storms will develop and possibly redevelop atop of saturated soils from morning rainfall. The HPCC wildfire burn scar will also be included in this Flood Watch. Not to be forgotten, but closer to the low itself, some showers and thunderstorms will also start to develop in north central to northwestern NM by the afternoon. Windy conditions will develop in the Rio Grande valley this afternoon before turning westerly as the Pacific front overtakes central NM. After showers and thunderstorms work over northeastern and east central NM this evening the northerly wind component associated with the backdoor cold front will become more prevalent after midnight. Some scattered to broken patches of low stratus will be left over eastern zones, possibly spitting some light rain or drizzle on east slope locations. These low spitting clouds will retreat into west TX through the late morning and early afternoon Sunday. Daytime highs will run 5 to 12 degrees cooler on Sunday across central to eastern NM with almost all areas staying below normal by 5 to 20 degrees (biggest departures in northeast NM). && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A backdoor front will push west through the central mountain chain Sunday night and create a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys, but with speeds below advisory threshold. Some warming is forecast Monday with rising pressure heights, but daytime temperatures will still be below normal most areas. Sufficient moisture combined with daytime heating will trigger a few showers and storms across the northern mountains and adjacent eastern highlands Monday afternoon/evening. The medium range model solutions are still at odds with the handling of an upstream trough dropping southeast across the central/southern Rockies Monday night through Tuesday. The GFS is still the drier solution, with good run-to-run consistency depicting a more dominant upper high over the Great Basin moving east over the southern Rockies and NM Tue/Wed. The ECMWF is still the wetter solution showing the trough closing off an upper low over the TX Panhandle Tue/Wed, then slowly meandering east thereafter. However, the ECMWF is trending further east with the upper low and if that trend continues, then the warmer/drier GFS solution may be the better forecast from mid to late next week. Forecast confidence is still low for Tue/Wed at this time, but if rain is in the cards then eastern NM will be favored. Temperatures will trend up from mid through late week and be above normal most areas by Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Unsettled weather will continue to impact the eastern half of New Mexico today through the evening. Through the late morning, expect increasing areas of MVFR (ceilings less than 3000ft and visibility at or less than 5 miles) and isolated pockets of IFR (ceilings less than 1000ft and visibility less than 3 miles). The lowest ceilings and visibilities are forecast to be near KLVS, KCQC, KSXU and vicinity through 21/1700UTC or so. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will expand to central and north central areas in the mid to late morning, and then toward portions of northwestern New Mexico near KFMN and KGUP by the afternoon. Strong south winds near KABQ, KBRG and KONM of 25 to 35 kt could warrant an Airport Weather Warning (for KABQ) this afternoon. A cold front will then enter northeastern New Mexico, with thunderstorms turning strong to severe as the front arrives into east central New Mexico in the late afternoon. Large hail, gusty downburst winds, and frequent lightning will be observed there. Short-lived pockets of low ceilings and light rain/drizzle may be possible in eastern areas tonight with precipitation in other areas coming to an end. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The already high chances for soaking rainfall will only rise more through the afternoon over east central to northeastern NM today as a deep low pressure system approaches the Four Corners area. Locally heavy rain and strong to severe storms will be possible, especially in east central NM this afternoon through the evening. Western areas of NM will essentially remain dry and breezy during today with stronger south winds (gusts of 35 to 45 mph) found in the Rio Grande valley this afternoon. While the humidity forecast for the Rio Grande valley has trended upwards, the humidity values will still be rather low and close to a 15 to 20 percent range late this afternoon. This could produce a couple hours of marginally critical fire weather south of Albuquerque through Socorro this afternoon when rapid fire spread could be possible. Showers and thunderstorms will remain very active over northeastern to east central NM this evening, but will be mostly dying off by midnight. Much cooler weather is then forecast for Sunday with much lower chances for showers and storms while moderate east or northeast winds keep feeding into much of central and eastern NM. Isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out in the northern NM mountains on Monday with warmer, but still below normal, temperatures and more relaxed winds. Another disturbance and potential cool front could arrive on Tuesday, reintroducing moisture/showers/storms to eastern NM Tuesday, lingering into the east central zones on Wednesday. A mostly dry weather pattern is expected for the remainder of next week with generally light to moderate breezes expected, however it should be noted that the forecast details remain highly uncertain Wednesday onward due to large differences among forecast models. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 73 45 73 46 / 60 30 0 0 Dulce........................... 72 36 69 38 / 80 50 10 5 Cuba............................ 72 41 69 42 / 70 30 0 0 Gallup.......................... 70 36 74 38 / 60 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 67 35 71 43 / 50 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 72 36 73 38 / 40 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 69 37 72 42 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 45 73 48 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 71 38 72 43 / 10 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 71 39 80 43 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 74 48 83 52 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 33 62 37 / 90 60 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 72 46 65 48 / 60 40 10 0 Pecos........................... 70 42 65 42 / 70 40 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 37 62 40 / 80 70 20 5 Red River....................... 57 34 53 36 / 90 70 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 60 30 58 28 / 90 60 20 5 Taos............................ 69 37 64 37 / 80 60 20 0 Mora............................ 64 38 60 37 / 80 60 20 0 Espanola........................ 78 44 74 45 / 60 40 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 75 45 69 46 / 70 40 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 79 43 73 44 / 60 30 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 50 76 53 / 40 20 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 52 77 52 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 85 45 79 47 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 49 77 50 / 40 20 0 0 Belen........................... 85 48 79 47 / 20 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 47 78 48 / 40 20 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 45 78 45 / 30 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 83 47 79 47 / 40 20 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 46 79 45 / 30 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 82 47 75 50 / 50 20 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 81 49 77 49 / 40 20 0 0 Socorro......................... 85 52 82 53 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 45 69 47 / 50 20 10 0 Tijeras......................... 78 46 72 46 / 50 20 10 0 Edgewood........................ 77 43 71 44 / 50 20 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 41 72 38 / 60 20 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 72 43 65 41 / 70 30 20 0 Mountainair..................... 77 44 71 43 / 40 20 20 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 44 72 42 / 40 10 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 80 51 77 50 / 40 10 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 74 44 69 45 / 50 20 20 5 Capulin......................... 62 41 52 36 / 90 80 30 0 Raton........................... 64 42 59 35 / 90 70 20 0 Springer........................ 68 43 63 37 / 90 70 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 68 42 62 39 / 80 60 20 0 Clayton......................... 68 49 60 42 / 90 80 30 0 Roy............................. 68 47 62 42 / 90 70 20 0 Conchas......................... 75 54 69 46 / 80 70 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 52 69 47 / 80 50 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 77 55 67 44 / 80 70 20 5 Clovis.......................... 81 57 69 47 / 80 70 20 10 Portales........................ 83 58 71 46 / 80 60 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 78 56 71 48 / 80 50 20 5 Roswell......................... 91 62 81 55 / 50 20 10 10 Picacho......................... 84 53 74 49 / 40 20 20 5 Elk............................. 82 50 76 47 / 40 10 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ214- 215-228>235. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...52