Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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864 FXUS65 KABQ 230815 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 215 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Temperatures will warm up today, but will still be just shy of normal for late September. A few stray showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon, mainly over the northern mountains of New Mexico, but otherwise mostly dry and tranquil weather is forecast through the rest of the week. Temperatures will warm each subsequent day of the week through Thursday, reaching 5 to 10 degrees above average by that time with only small day-to-day changes thereafter. Mostly light to moderate winds are forecast through the week too, but some gusty winds will spill through the gaps and canyons of the central mountain chain Tuesday evening, and some gusts may reach 25 to 35 mph for a few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today should be another quiet and seasonable Fall day. There is a very low chance (<10%) that patchy fog develops in the eastern plains early this morning before sunrise. Confidence is slightly higher for northern mountain valleys, such as the Moreno Valley for a very short period right around sunrise. Temperatures will moderate today, especially in the east where they will run anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees higher than yesterday. However, highs will still be slightly below seasonal averages in most areas. A shortwave grazing the northern mountains could generate a few showers and even a strike of lightning or two near the CO border, but impacts will be minimal. Ridging will quickly shift eastward over New Mexico on Tuesday, allowing temps to climb a few more degrees everywhere. At the same time, a trough will dig into the plains, sending a backdoor front into the northeast corner of the state Tuesday afternoon. Due to the timing of the front`s arrival, it will struggle to move uphill in eastern NM. There will be little sensible weather change other than a wind shift to the east and a few degrees of cooling in its wake. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Into Tuesday evening the upper low over the MO river valley will shove surface high pressure into the southern plains, including eastern NM. This will bring and easterly wind component across that half of the state which could lead to an evening surge through the gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain. Vulnerable locations such as eastern ABQ could observe some gusty conditions through the evening before speeds recede after midnight. Into the daytime Wednesday, the high amplitude dome of high pressure will build more directly over NM, CO and surrounding states with heights escalating toward 588-591 decameters at 500 mb. This will keep a light wind field aloft while light surface winds veer southerly in eastern NM. Temperatures will gain a couple degrees in most locations under the rising pressure heights. The ridge will retain its strength into Thursday and Friday, but it will retrograde westward and more directly over the Four Corners states. This will keep temperatures reaching above average in most locations (generally by 5 to 10 degrees above in most western and central zones). The former MO river valley low will remain inland doing a dance with a potential ConUS-bound tropical cyclone over the Gulf coast states. This could reintroduce surface pressure rises over the southern plains again, potentially drawing another easterly wind into eastern and portions of central NM late Friday. A weak shortwave could drop southward on the eastern periphery of the ridge Friday, and as this feature moves out of CO and into NM it looks to provide enough mid level moisture for high-based afternoon cumulus that could yield scattered virga showers, mainly over the mountains. The ridge will build back over NM this weekend, retaining its strength on Saturday, but starting to weaken slightly into Sunday. Sufficient mid level moisture for high-based cumulus and possible afternoon virga showers will be about the only impactful weather of note, other than the warmer than average temperatures (still mainly in western and central zones). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Satellite imagery shows a patch of MVFR cigs along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains and another smaller area along and east of the south-central mountains. BKN ceilings are expected to persist for the next few hours, breaking up after 10Z as winds veer and turn around to the south. There is a low chance (10-20%) that patchy fog develops in the eastern plains between 09Z and sunrise, with higher confidence (40-60%) in northern mountain valleys, including the Moreno Valley. A few sprinkles are possible in the northern mountains tomorrow, but it will be an otherwise quiet day with mostly clear skies and light winds (<10KT). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A few showers and even a storm or two are possible this afternoon in the northern mountains, but that`s the only reasonable chance of rain for the next 5 days. Ridging shifts overhead Tuesday and remains in place in the vicinity of New Mexico through the end of the workweek. A backdoor front will intrude from the east Tuesday afternoon, with little sensible weather change other than a slight cooldown and increase in humidity. Another weak backdoor front may enter from the east on Friday afternoon. Moisture behind the front could generate isolated showers and storms over the high terrain this weekend, but confidence is low. Temperatures will rise above seasonal averages Tuesday and remain there through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 78 48 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 73 35 78 40 / 10 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 72 44 77 45 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 76 41 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 73 44 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 76 41 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 43 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 51 78 51 / 5 5 0 0 Datil........................... 75 45 77 44 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 80 44 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 55 86 53 / 0 5 5 0 Chama........................... 67 38 72 40 / 20 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 69 50 75 53 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 70 48 74 46 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 43 71 43 / 10 0 0 0 Red River....................... 58 38 62 35 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 64 30 68 24 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 71 38 75 40 / 10 0 0 0 Mora............................ 69 40 72 41 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 77 45 82 49 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 71 50 76 50 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 47 80 48 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 79 52 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 79 53 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 81 48 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 80 51 85 52 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 80 47 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 81 52 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 81 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 77 53 82 53 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 80 53 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 83 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 48 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 74 50 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 74 44 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 40 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 71 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 74 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 78 53 82 56 / 5 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 50 75 43 / 10 0 10 5 Capulin......................... 71 44 69 41 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 75 42 75 41 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 76 43 77 42 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 72 43 75 43 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 76 53 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 73 46 76 48 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 79 50 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 77 48 81 52 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 78 50 82 50 / 0 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 79 56 85 55 / 0 0 10 5 Portales........................ 80 55 86 55 / 0 0 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 79 52 85 54 / 5 0 5 5 Roswell......................... 83 59 91 61 / 0 0 5 10 Picacho......................... 78 52 84 54 / 5 0 5 5 Elk............................. 78 50 81 52 / 10 5 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...16