Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
053 FXUS65 KABQ 170522 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Moisture from the remnants of former tropical storm Ileana have moved into New Mexico, and a deep low pressure system is moving towards the Great Basin in Nevada. This will lead to additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over mainly western and north central New Mexico today and tonight. A few strong to even severe storms will possibly produce hail and damaging winds in these areas. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over similar areas again Tuesday morning before spreading to eastern areas of New Mexico into the afternoon and evening hours. Drier air will then sweep into New Mexico eliminating rain chances from the area on Wednesday and likely into Thursday as well. Moisture returns to eastern New Mexico Friday, setting up a dryline that will trigger thunderstorms to develop. A cold front will then impact northern and central New Mexico Friday night into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Light showers and low clouds across north central areas in association with a lead mid level disturbance have kept things cool and fairly stable across this part of the state early this afternoon with temperatures still in the 50s and 60s. Low clouds have been breaking up across far western NM allowing things to destabilize quickly. Across eastern Arizona where skies were clear this morning, higher instability and better jet dynamics closer to an upper low over the Great Basin have allowed showers and storms to ignite across this area. These storms will move into the increasing instability across western NM where MLCAPE values are around 1000 J/kg. This combined with effective bulk shear values of 45 to 50 kts will allow storms to organize and become strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with these storms due to storms mixing down higher winds aloft to the surface. Large hail can`t be ruled out but lower mid level lapse rates will help limit the large hail threat. Storms will probably weaken as they move into central NM and the upper and middle RGV later this evening due to higher CIN/ lower instability due to this morning`s showers and cloud cover with the damaging wind threat ending west of the RGV. Meanwhile, storms are starting to develop across the northeast highlands, which is on the edge of the higher CAPE and morning cloud shield some storms have begin to develop. Storms are not expected to develop across the eastern plains this afternoon due to a lack of CAPE and mid level warm nose there. Overnight, convection will wane for most across western and central NM as the upper low moves east towards the NV/UT border. A LLJ across eastern NM will result in upslope flow across the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains allowing shower and storm chances to persist overnight. Rainfall amounts from most CAM guidance look to be light, but elevated instability could result in some pockets of locally heavier rainfall which is critical for the HPCC burn scar. Low clouds will also be possible in Las Vegas around sunrise. In the hours before sunrise, a 110 kt jet streak on the southeast quadrant of the upper low circulation (southern UT/AZ) will help storms fire up across east central AZ which will be under the equatorial entrance region of this aformentioned jet streak and have higher moisture in the upper 50s to near 60. This activity will move into western NM around sunrise and impact Gallup and Farmington before drier westerly flow moves in midday Tuesday. Drier and gusty westerly flow will be quickly surging west to east across the state on Tuesday with PWATS dropping to under half an inch behind the Pacific front as the upper low moves northeast towards Idaho and Wyoming. Downsloping will probably kill morning convection across western NM before it enters the middle RGV and ABQ Metro. However, the Pacific front looks to move through the ABQ Metro during the lunchtime hour and this front combining with some heating could allow a storm or two to pop over the metro before the drier westerly flow moves in. Storms look to initiate across the central mountain chain midday with fast motion to the northeast due to the stronger flow aloft and drier westerly flow in the wake. This will be great news for the HPCC and Ruidoso burn scars. The Pacific front combining with PWATS around 1 to 1.25 inches, MLCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts will result in the development of supercellular storms across eastern NM, growing upscale and coalescing into a line as it approaches the Texas border come the mid evening hours. Large hail will be the main threat initially turning more into a damaging wind threat as the storms become more linear. Storms exit into west Texas shortly after sunset with clearing skies and quickly cooling temperatures overnight due to the drier air moving in. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Much drier southwesterly flow on Wednesday will eliminate shower and thunderstorm potential. A hint of return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will try to work into the far southeastern corner of NM, mainly outside of our forecast area, but otherwise surface dewpoints will stay in the upper 20`s and 30`s with PWATs around 0.3 to 0.4 inch. Daytime temperatures would run a few degrees below average in the northwestern half of the forecast area while the southeastern half would remain a few degrees above. With the dry air and mostly clear skies in place, a cooler night would be expected Wednesday night with Angel Fire likely dropping into the mid 20`s as one of the cold spots in the CWA. The upper low would move toward the CA-NV border on Thursday, stiffening the southwesterlies over NM while keeping dry air pushing in over most of the forecast area. Again, southeasterly surface flow would advect some moisture into far southeastern NM, and despite some higher dewpoints in our southeasternmost zones, there is still a low probability for any storms to initiate on this leading edge. Temperatures would gain a couple degrees on Thursday, and like Wednesday, breezy conditions would persist, mainly from the southwest outside of the aforementioned southeasternmost zones that would be under return flow. The upper low would then work into northwestern AZ on Friday, having dug a bit farther south than its previous location on Thursday. This will allow the return flow to be drawn farther into eastern NM with juicier dewpoints in the 50`s that will boost PWATs and increase afternoon CAPE/instability within a high rising shear environment. This will yield strong to severe storms in eastern NM Friday afternoon and evening. Into Friday night and Saturday, the upper low will move toward the NM-CO border. While the low itself will not bring significant moisture, a cold front that will be sliding down the plains will merge with the low later Saturday with strong frontogenesis and surface moisture convergence potentially leading to an abrupt onset of precipitation over north central to northeastern NM. The threat for strong to severe storms could also be present and extend into eastern NM again Saturday. Lower confidence still exists with the finer details of Sunday`s forecast elements, mainly the surface wind field with large differences in direction depending on the low track and speed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Iso/sct convection across the area will continue to trend down overnight, but may impact KTCC between 06-09Z with short-lived MVFR conditions. Areas of low stratus/fog are forecast to develop overnight into Tuesday morning and may impact KGUP with MVFR conditions and KLVS with IFR. Sct/num convection is forecast Tuesday, with an early start and potential for morning impacts at KFMN and KGUP. Highest chances for thunderstorm-related impacts will be Tuesday afternoon at KLVS and KTCC. Otherwise, gusty south-southwest winds are forecast Tuesday, with frequent gusts to between 25-30kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected. An active near term period as a storm system across the western US moves northeast of New Mexico. Showers and storms favoring western and central NM through early tomorrow shift to eastern NM along a Pacific cold front Locally windy conditions may develop just east of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon out ahead of the aforementioned cold front, although the greater concern will be strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and large hail. These strong storms are possible as far west as the Rio Grande Valley, but confidence is greatest along and east of the central mountain chain. Most of the area will see wetting rainfall today and/or Tuesday and a few locations could see over 1" after repeated rounds of showers and storms. Moisture increases across southeast NM late Thursday with dryline storms possible across eastern NM Friday afternoon and evening as another Pacific low approaches the state. Showers and storms possible across northeast NM Saturday as the low swings through with drier and cooler conditions areawide behind the system on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 75 45 80 / 60 80 0 0 Dulce........................... 46 67 34 74 / 90 90 0 0 Cuba............................ 50 73 41 75 / 60 70 0 0 Gallup.......................... 54 74 38 79 / 30 60 0 0 El Morro........................ 50 71 41 74 / 30 40 0 0 Grants.......................... 51 77 36 78 / 30 40 0 0 Quemado......................... 52 73 41 77 / 20 30 0 0 Magdalena....................... 56 79 48 79 / 30 30 0 0 Datil........................... 49 75 42 77 / 20 30 0 0 Reserve......................... 53 71 41 79 / 30 30 0 0 Glenwood........................ 60 75 53 81 / 40 40 0 0 Chama........................... 44 61 34 68 / 80 90 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 55 74 50 74 / 60 70 5 0 Pecos........................... 53 72 46 75 / 60 70 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 68 41 70 / 60 70 10 0 Red River....................... 44 59 36 63 / 60 70 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 45 67 30 67 / 50 70 10 0 Taos............................ 49 73 37 74 / 60 70 10 0 Mora............................ 47 71 39 74 / 50 80 10 0 Espanola........................ 55 80 47 81 / 60 70 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 56 74 47 75 / 60 60 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 79 45 79 / 60 60 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 83 54 80 / 50 50 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 84 52 82 / 50 50 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 86 50 84 / 40 40 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 84 52 82 / 40 50 0 0 Belen........................... 58 87 50 85 / 40 30 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 85 50 82 / 50 50 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 57 86 48 84 / 40 40 0 0 Corrales........................ 60 85 51 83 / 50 50 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 58 87 50 84 / 40 40 0 0 Placitas........................ 59 83 51 80 / 50 50 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 60 84 52 81 / 50 50 0 0 Socorro......................... 63 88 54 88 / 30 30 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 77 46 76 / 50 50 5 0 Tijeras......................... 56 80 48 77 / 50 50 5 0 Edgewood........................ 52 79 43 78 / 50 60 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 80 41 80 / 50 60 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 76 44 77 / 50 60 5 0 Mountainair..................... 54 78 46 79 / 40 40 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 78 47 80 / 40 30 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 60 82 55 83 / 30 30 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 75 51 77 / 30 50 5 5 Capulin......................... 53 76 45 77 / 10 60 30 0 Raton........................... 54 78 44 81 / 20 60 20 0 Springer........................ 55 80 44 83 / 20 60 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 75 43 77 / 50 70 10 0 Clayton......................... 60 84 56 85 / 10 40 50 0 Roy............................. 57 79 49 80 / 40 70 40 0 Conchas......................... 61 86 54 88 / 40 70 30 0 Santa Rosa...................... 60 83 53 85 / 50 70 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 88 57 88 / 30 60 50 0 Clovis.......................... 63 88 62 91 / 10 40 60 5 Portales........................ 63 89 62 90 / 10 40 60 5 Fort Sumner..................... 63 87 56 87 / 30 50 30 0 Roswell......................... 68 93 65 95 / 10 30 20 0 Picacho......................... 59 87 55 88 / 20 40 10 0 Elk............................. 56 84 53 84 / 20 40 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for NMZ214-215. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...11