Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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962 FXUS65 KABQ 160835 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A overall hot and dry Father`s day is expected with hot temperatures continuing into early next week. Southwest and south winds pick up a bit today with the breeziest winds expected more so Monday and Tuesday as a storm system moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Moisture increases across eastern NM behind a backdoor front Wednesday resulting in the return of shower and storm chances during the afternoon and evening. These storms look to bring a strong east canyon wind to Albuquerque Wednesday evening and spread moisture west to the Arizona border come Thursday. This higher moisture will bring better chances for shower and storms areawide late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 An upper level ridge will shift slowly east across the area today and be replaced by increasing southwest flow aloft as an upper level trough/low progresses east from the west coast toward the Great Basin. Daytime heating will result in another round of isolated convection near the TX border later this afternoon/evening, where a few storms may become strong to severe. Instability will be supportive of severe storms later today, but 0-6km bulk shear will be on the lower side at 20-25kts and may limit severe storms to when they cross east into the TX Panhandle. Roswell is forecast to hit a high of 105 today, so will issue a Heat Advisory for the Chaves County Plains. Elsewhere, a warming trend will continue with highs around 5-10 degrees above normal. In addition to stronger winds aloft on Monday, a deepening lee side trough will help to produce breezy to windy conditions by afternoon. Lower pressure heights will take the edge off of the heat by a couple degrees, except across east central and southeast NM where downslope winds will boost highs a 1-2 degrees. Roswell is forecast to hit a high of 107 on Monday and will need to issue another Heat Advisory. A dryline is forecast to sharpen up a bit by late Monday near the TX border and act as a focus for convective initiation. Storms that develop Monday afternoon have a higher chance at becoming severe given a more impressive shear profile with 0-6km bulk shear of 30-35kts. Any storms that develop Monday afternoon will move quickly east into TX. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A stray storm is possible along the dryline near the Texas border Monday evening. If a storm were to develop it would be capable of becoming strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the main threat. Tuesday will be very similar to Monday with upper level southwest flow at the base of a upper level trough over the northern Rockies. Winds look to be slightly weaker on Tuesday compared to Monday due to slightly weaker upper level winds. As a shortwave within the larger scale upper level trough exits northeast to the northern Great Plains Tuesday night, it will send a weak backdoor front with higher moisture behind it into northeast NM and east central NM. A stray shower/storm could develop along the backdoor front in far northeast NM Tuesday evening into early Tuesday night. At the same time, southeast return flow on the western flank of high pressure will push higher Gulf moisture from West Texas west into southeast and east central NM. It looks like there will be a convergence zone across east central NM with northeast to east winds north of the backdoor front and southeast winds south of the backdoor front and east of the dryline boundary. This convergence combined with higher moisture of PWATS around 0.75 to 1 inch will result in the development of showers and storms across the east slopes of the central mountain chain and near that convergence zone in east central NM. There will also be breezy south to southeast winds across central NM including ABQ due to the strong moisture gradient along the central mountain chain (much lower moisture west of the central mountain chain and higher moisture east of the central mountain chain). Outflow from storms across eastern NM will help push a strong east canyon wind through the gaps of the central mountain chain through the ABQ and Santa Fe metros. The GFS guidance has east winds at KABQ peaking at 44 kts with the initial push while ECMWF guidance has around 25 kts with that initial push. A strong east canyon wind is definitely possible due to the aforementioned strong moisture gradient. Ensembles agree in Gulf moisture pushing all the way to the AZ border come Thursday morning. It`s at this point where overall forecast confidence decreases. There will be better chances for showers and storms areawide due to the higher moisture. The question is how much moisture increases due to differences in the upper level pattern. There will be a tropical wave in the western Gulf, northern Mexico, and Texas vicinity, but the overall track of this wave late week varies due to where the western edge of the upper high centered over the northeast U.S. ends up being. The GFS has this western edge further east over the eastern Great Plains while the ECMWF has the western edge of the upper high more over eastern NM. There will also be weak upper level troughing over the Pacific coast. So the tropical wave could move into New Mexico around the west flank of the upper level ridge in the case of the GFS or be blocked by the westward expanding upper level ridge and move across Mexico in the case of the ECMWF. The GFS solution will result in much higher moisture, more cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and widespread coverage of showers and storms. The ECMWF solution will result in less available moisture, less cloud cover, warmer temperatures and the coverage of showers and storms favoring the higher terrain. Ensembles seem to be split on these two scenarios. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with a couple of potential exceptions. Patchy low stratus/fog may develop overnight and bring MVFR conditions closer the TX border, potentially impacting KROW and KTCC. Low probability of impacting those terminals. Another round of storms near the TX border Sunday afternoon/evening may impact KTCC, but low probability on that scenario as well. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will develop across western NM Sunday afternoon and gusts to between 20-30kts will be common. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Hot, dry and unstable conditions will overtake most of the area through Tuesday as an upper level ridge moves east across the region and is replaced with southwest flow aloft. Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across western NM today with deep layer mixing bringing gusty winds by late day. Stronger winds aloft on Monday combined with a deepening lee side trough will bring breezy to windy conditions and the potential for critical fire weather conditions across far western NM were ERCs are more favorable for the spread of fire. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for western portions of the area, with wind speeds being the only limiter. Hot, dry and unstable conditons will persist Tuesday, but with much less wind. Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast Wednesday across far western NM with wind speeds being the main limiter once again. The combination of a backdoor front and Gulf moisture will result in increasing humidity from east to west across the area on Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will trend down during the late week period and chances for wetting rain and potential burn scar flooding will trend up. Moisture will linger over the region through next weekend, bringing daily rounds of wetting storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 55 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 89 45 88 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 90 52 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 93 45 90 46 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 89 49 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 93 47 92 49 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 91 52 90 50 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 93 60 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 90 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 94 47 91 45 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 97 61 95 59 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 84 45 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 89 61 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 90 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 50 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 78 47 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 82 41 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 90 49 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 87 51 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 96 58 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 92 59 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 95 56 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 65 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 63 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 61 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 64 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 100 61 100 59 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 99 63 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 99 59 99 58 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 99 62 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 100 60 99 59 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 95 64 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 98 64 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 101 64 101 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 61 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 93 60 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 94 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 53 93 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 90 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 92 58 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 93 59 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 96 65 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 88 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 91 58 91 55 / 5 5 0 0 Raton........................... 94 56 94 54 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 96 56 94 55 / 5 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 90 54 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 96 64 96 65 / 20 10 5 0 Roy............................. 93 61 93 60 / 5 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 98 66 100 66 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 97 63 98 63 / 5 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 100 67 101 67 / 20 10 5 5 Clovis.......................... 96 67 98 67 / 20 10 20 10 Portales........................ 97 67 99 67 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 100 67 101 66 / 0 10 0 5 Roswell......................... 105 71 107 70 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 99 63 100 62 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 96 61 96 60 / 0 0 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ101-105-109. Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...11