Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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743 FXUS65 KABQ 300943 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 343 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Thunderstorms are forecast to decrease in coverage today, with most locations east the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, Manzano, Gallinas and Sacramento mountains remaining dry. Elsewhere however, another round of mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon. Locally very heavy rainfall on recent burn scars including the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon, Blue2, South Fork and Salt burn scars are also expected in northwest and west- central areas this afternoon where a flash flood watch is in effect through tonight. Rain shower and thunderstorm movement today will be to the northeast around 20 mph. The threat for heavy rain continues through Wednesday before a break arrives Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain chances, however, return next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Easterly wave and its associated jetlet on the southern end of a highly anomalous Bermuda high over the Southern Plains made it approximately 50-75 miles farther westward than forecast Saturday. As a result, a very active evening of strong to severe storms made it into the Rio Grande Valley. Rainfall totals of 2.5-3.0" were common in the ABQ metro last night where flash flooding reports have yet to come into the office. Elsewhere, KFDX radar estimates near 7.0" between Farley and Sierra Grande at the Historical Click Ranch seem on the high side based on rain gauge reports through the night, but an estimated 5"+ will likely lead to significant rises in the Canadian River downstream east of Gladstone, down David Hill just south of Bueyeros and eventually into Ute Reservoir. Unfortunately for today, another jetlet or wind speed max @ 250mb on the southern periphery of the Bermuda high is forecast to slide up from the southeast again today. A late start to convection is likely given this mornings debris cloud field, but the heavy to very heavy rain potential returns to locations mainly along and west of the central mountain chain late this afternoon and through much of tonight. This includes the HPCC, Blue2, South Fork, Salt and McBride burn scars. Additionally, a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding was issued for the northwest plateau and much of McKinley county including Farmington, Bloomfield, Aztec, Shiprock, Gallup and Standing Rock this afternoon where strong thunderstorms producing very heavy rain are likely. Showers and storms will continue through much of tonight once again as the above mentioned wind maxima slides north up the RGV. Models continue to indicate that two jet maxima remain on track for Monday. The first maxima, associated with the subtropical jet, moves northeastward from AZ and into the Four Corners area Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, another easterly wave is progged to move up into far southeast NM late day Monday. Atmospheric stretching or deformation between these two jet level features results in increased atmospheric lift along with a greater potential for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Global models agree that the highly anomalous trough over the Western U.S. will force the Bermuda high eastward and allow increasing west and northwest flow aloft to dry things out somewhat over northern NM Tuesday and Wednesday while shower and thunderstorm chances continue central and south. Continued northwest flow aloft Wednesday night and Thursday will eventually send a backdoor cold front into eastern NM Thursday night and Friday, resulting in another marked increase in shower and thunderstorm activity in eastern NM Friday and over the weekend elsewhere. Why so anomalously wet lately? With Atlantic Basin Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) 5 standard deviations above average for much of late winter and spring, thunderstorm activity in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean in late spring reacted in kind and has been off the charts. What goes up in the tropics must come down in the subtropics and lower mid latitudes, leading to a Bermuda High much stronger than average. Throw in a subtropical and Asian- Pacific jet stronger than average as well thanks to El Nino and this is the result. Global models agree that subsidence from increasing eastern Pacific thunderstorm activity may align with the long wave northern stream pattern late in the week. Subsidence or sinking air from EPAC thunderstorms is the monsoon high. This year, it appears to align with westerly flow aloft that is more robust than usual and a strong upper high develops over CA and the Great Basin late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Numerous thunderstorms will continue over north central and northeast NM overnight. Low cigs/vsby will accompany heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight as an easterly wave rounds elongated high pressure centered over the Southern Plains. On Sunday, afternoon and evening showers and storms will be most prevalent over far northern and far western NM during the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible elsewhere Sunday afternoon. Heavy rainfall and brief reductions to visibility are likely from any storm. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The wet pattern of late continues through next week. No critical fire weather conditions are anticipated during the next week. Heavy rain and flash flooding remain the main weather threat during the next 7 days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 90 65 84 63 / 70 70 50 20 Dulce........................... 84 52 80 50 / 60 70 60 20 Cuba............................ 84 58 78 56 / 40 60 80 40 Gallup.......................... 89 57 83 55 / 70 70 60 30 El Morro........................ 84 58 78 57 / 50 70 80 40 Grants.......................... 87 57 82 55 / 50 60 90 40 Quemado......................... 87 60 81 58 / 40 70 80 50 Magdalena....................... 87 65 83 63 / 20 50 80 40 Datil........................... 84 60 80 59 / 40 60 90 40 Reserve......................... 91 58 88 58 / 40 80 80 40 Glenwood........................ 96 68 92 68 / 40 80 70 30 Chama........................... 79 50 74 49 / 70 60 80 40 Los Alamos...................... 82 62 79 61 / 40 60 80 40 Pecos........................... 82 61 81 60 / 40 40 60 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 48 76 47 / 50 30 70 30 Red River....................... 73 49 71 48 / 60 30 80 30 Angel Fire...................... 74 47 74 44 / 60 30 70 20 Taos............................ 83 56 81 54 / 40 30 60 30 Mora............................ 79 53 81 54 / 40 30 60 20 Espanola........................ 91 63 87 61 / 30 40 60 30 Santa Fe........................ 84 63 81 61 / 30 50 60 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 63 85 59 / 30 50 60 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 68 88 65 / 20 60 70 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 70 89 66 / 20 50 60 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 68 91 63 / 10 50 60 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 69 89 66 / 20 50 60 30 Belen........................... 95 67 92 65 / 10 40 60 30 Bernalillo...................... 93 69 90 66 / 20 50 60 30 Bosque Farms.................... 94 66 91 62 / 10 40 60 30 Corrales........................ 93 70 90 66 / 20 50 60 30 Los Lunas....................... 94 68 91 65 / 10 50 60 30 Placitas........................ 89 67 87 63 / 20 50 60 30 Rio Rancho...................... 92 69 89 66 / 20 50 60 30 Socorro......................... 97 71 95 69 / 10 40 60 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 63 82 61 / 20 50 60 30 Tijeras......................... 86 60 85 59 / 20 50 60 30 Edgewood........................ 86 59 86 58 / 20 40 60 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 58 86 58 / 20 40 50 30 Clines Corners.................. 82 58 82 58 / 20 40 40 30 Mountainair..................... 88 60 85 59 / 20 40 50 30 Gran Quivira.................... 88 61 86 60 / 30 40 50 30 Carrizozo....................... 91 66 90 67 / 30 30 30 30 Ruidoso......................... 82 60 82 61 / 60 20 40 20 Capulin......................... 80 60 84 59 / 40 10 30 10 Raton........................... 84 58 87 58 / 50 10 30 10 Springer........................ 87 60 89 60 / 40 10 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 79 59 81 59 / 30 20 50 20 Clayton......................... 87 68 92 68 / 30 10 5 10 Roy............................. 84 64 87 64 / 30 10 20 10 Conchas......................... 92 69 95 70 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 89 67 90 67 / 10 10 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 95 70 96 71 / 5 5 0 10 Clovis.......................... 95 69 96 70 / 0 5 0 5 Portales........................ 95 70 97 71 / 0 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 94 71 95 70 / 0 5 10 10 Roswell......................... 99 75 101 75 / 0 5 5 10 Picacho......................... 90 66 93 65 / 20 10 20 10 Elk............................. 89 61 91 62 / 30 20 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for NMZ201>203-205-206-210-213>215-226-227. Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ214-215- 221>223-226>232. Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ211. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...33