Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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509 FXUS65 KABQ 251738 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1138 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are on tap today across northern and central New Mexico. Please be smart and avoid any actions that can cause a spark or start a fire. Any new fire starts will spread rapidly. It is extremely important today to follow safety protocols and regulations issued by local authorities, including any evacuation orders. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged and potentially illegal and very dangerous. Your neighbors lives and livelihood may be affected by your actions. Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are expected across most of eastern New Mexico with gusts of 60 mph possible across the south central mountains and southwest Chaves County. After a breezy Sunday, winds finally lighten up and temperatures heat up Memorial Day due to high pressure builds overhead. Surface moisture increases a little across eastern areas Memorial Day thanks to a cold front, but more moisture moves in from the east Tuesday and Wednesday and this could help result in the development of a few storms across northeast New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dry westerly flow looks to push better moisture and storm chances into Texas late this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Winds will strengthen areawide today as an upper level trough crossing from the west steers the jet stream over the state. A 60-70 KT southwesterly speed maximum at 500 mb is forecast to stretch from the south central mountains northeastward across the southeast and east central plains. With high temperatures varying from near to as much as 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages across this area, the atmosphere should mix well above 700 mb in many locations. With this forecast package we are expanding the ongoing Wind Advisory to include Chaves and De Baca Counties, as well as the upper Tularosa Valley, because they are under the strong speed max aloft. So are Quay, Curry, and Roosevelt Counties, which will need to be watched for expansion of wind highlights during a late morning update. Left these latter three zones out of the Advisory for now due to weaker MOS winds there. With this package we will also upgrade the south central mountains to a High Wind Warning, since southwest flow aligns with some of the canyons often leading to funneling and over performance on wind speeds, including the notorious Nogal ZiaMet station. Anyone in the south central mountains will need to pay close attention to evacuation orders today, since southwesterly wind gusts to 60 mph are likely to cause rapid expansion of the Blue 2 Fire with long range spotting leading to new fire starts potentially miles down wind from the main forest fire. This situation is dangerous, and it will be very important for the public to heed evacuation orders to protect their lives. In addition, wildfire smoke will billow from this fire impacting the communities along the northeast slopes of the Sacramento Mountains, as well locations as far away as Clovis and Portales. Another smokey location today will be down wind from the Indios fire near Gallinas Peak to Taos and eventually Raton by this evening. The combination of strong winds, very low humidity, and unstable atmosphere will produce critical fire weather conditions areawide today. A gusty Pacific cold front will cross from the west and northwest this afternoon and evening with a westerly wind shift. By Sunday winds aloft and at the surface will weaken areawide, but they may still remain strong enough for additional fire weather concerns across the central highlands. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Northwest breezes areawide taper off after sunset Sunday. Surface moisture increases very slightly across the eastern plains Sunday night into Monday morning due to a backdoor front entering that part of the state. Much lighter winds look to finally arrive areawide Memorial Day as upper level ridging builds over the state. Could see some virga showers and erratic wind gusts of up to 45 mph Monday afternoon and evening across far north central and northeast NM near the CO border. This is due to some mid level moisture moving east across that area. Temperatures will increase across western and central NM due to the higher upper level heights with Albuquerque probably seeing its first 90 degree day of the year on Tuesday (right around the average 1st 90 degree date of May 27th) and Farmington getting into the upper 80s. Overall, temperatures next week will be around to slightly above average with very little change day to day. For those of you hoping for precipitation, it will be basically nonexistent across western and central NM due to very dry westerly flow. For eastern NM, its not extremely promising to be honest. Meager moisture from the backdoor front Monday morning quickly mixes out Monday afternoon. Return moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves into eastern NM from the southeast Monday night into Tuesday morning allowing dewpoints to increase to the 40s to low 50s according to ensemble solutions. The moisture mixes east towards West Texas midday, but looks to hold on long enough across northeast NM to result in a few showers and storms before moving into Texas. Storms in West Texas Tuesday evening, will push the dryline and higher Gulf moisture east of it back west into New Mexico. The GFS, ECMWF and ensemble solutions bring the moisture as far west as the RGV and into the ABQ Metro Wednesday morning resulting in light east canyon winds. Dewpoints across eastern plains increase to the 50s Wednesday morning. With the moisture getting farther west, it will take longer to mix out east. However, ensembles agree on an upper level trough/low moving into the Pacific NW Wednesday and the slightly stronger westerly flow south of this helps push the moisture back east towards West Texas. but it looks to hang on long enough across northeast NM to allow for some showers and storms to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening before moving into West Texas. Additionally, some drier storms could develop in the Sangre de Cristo mountains and this could produce dry lightning. The dryline backs west again possibly getting to the central highlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, the westerly flow at the base of the upper low looks to push the moisture back east into West Texas. If a storm were to develop, will probably be in far northeast NM near the TX/OK border. The upper level trough moves east into the northern Great Plains Friday with the dryline into West Texas by the afternoon. However, a backdoor front could move into far northeast NM and provide the moisture to generate a shower or storm there. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Widespread strong southwest to west winds will impact the region through sunset with localized blowing dust and smoke. Gusts from 35 to 45 kt will be common across central and eastern NM with the strongest gusts peaking between 4 pm and 6 pm as a weak cold front moves thru the region. The greatest chance for blowing dust with lowered cigs/vsbys will be at KROW. Smoke will produce significant reductions to vsbys immediately downwind of fires thru sunset. Some smoke may settle into the lower elevations of eastern NM and the upper RGV overnight with limited vsbys possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 ...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY, THEN CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUNDAY... Strong winds are expected areawide today as an upper level trough crossing from the west draws the jetstream over the state. The most extreme fire weather conditions are forecast east of the central mountain chain where many locations can expect wind gusts up to 50 mph and humidities will drop into the single digits with Haines Indices maxing out at 6. A Pacific cold front will cross from the west this afternoon and evening shifting the wind direction out of the west. Winds will then weaken and shift out of the northwest by Sunday, when winds may still be strong enough for another round of critical conditions across the Central Highlands. The weather pattern will then shift during the first half of the coming work week as a couple somewhat moist backdoor fronts and southeasterly return flow allow better moisture into eastern areas, and a ridge of high pressure crosses aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the east Tuesday through Thursday, but wetting footprints look pretty small, and potentially nonexistent in some places like the Sangre de Cristo Mountains where gusty virga showers will be more likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 77 45 78 44 / 5 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 72 34 75 35 / 10 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 72 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 37 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 69 38 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 75 38 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 73 39 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 77 47 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 72 42 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 34 82 39 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 50 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 33 68 35 / 10 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 72 48 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 73 48 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 42 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 63 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 66 35 67 31 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 73 37 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 72 45 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 80 48 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 75 48 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 51 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 51 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 53 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 50 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 51 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 49 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 85 53 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 50 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 80 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 83 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 90 53 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 48 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 77 48 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 79 46 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 45 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 75 45 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 79 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 80 46 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 82 51 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 74 50 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 76 42 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 79 44 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 80 46 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 75 47 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 85 51 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 80 48 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 88 54 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 85 53 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 91 55 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 92 57 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 90 56 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 60 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 86 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 85 51 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106- 109-120>126. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223>225-227>234- 237>239. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ125. High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...42