914
FXUS63 KABR 261738 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1238 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The combination of warm temperatures, low relative humidity
  and wind gusts in excess of 35 mph will create critical fire
  conditions across central South Dakota this afternoon and
  evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

- Above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend. The
  warmest temperatures will occur today and Sunday, when some
  locations along and west of the Missouri River will exceed 90
  degrees.

- Sunday and Monday will see windy conditions again, with gusts
  in excess of 35 mph possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1014 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

No changed are expected in the forecast for the rest of today.
Mostly sunny skies, very warm to hot temperatures and gusty
southerly winds are still expected through this afternoon. A Red
Flag Warning remains in effect for central South Dakota until
early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Upper level ridging will remain over the region today, though it
does look to get dampened some later this afternoon as a shortwave
trough tracks across Montana toward the western Dakotas. The trough
will track across the CWA late tonight through early Friday morning,
with ridging building back in Friday afternoon.

At the surface, high pressure has moved east of the region as a
trough digs down the lee of the Rockies. The trough and its
associated frontal boundary will reach central South Dakota by early
this evening, but before that happens, will see a fairly tight
pressure gradient result in gusty south winds, with gusts in excess
of 35 mph across parts of the western and central CWA. Warmer and
drier air will also be ushered into the region, with relative
humidity values falling below 20 percent along and west of the
MIssouri River. The low humidity in combination with the gusty winds
will aid in creating critical fire conditions, and have therefore
issued a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon and evening for the
counties on either side of the Missouri River. The trough/front will
move through the area tonight, shifting winds around to a more
northerly direction. High pressure settles back in on Friday. No
precipitation is expected in the near term period.

High temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 80s across
west central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota, to the mid
90s across south central South Dakota. Low temperatures tonight will
be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Friday will be in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Friday night, we are still under an upper level ridge. This will
last through Sunday evening before we transition into more westerly
flow as a trough and a low moves across southern Canada. At the
surface, the cold front from this low will move west to east across
the area on Monday into Tuesday morning. Once this upper level low
moves out, a low amplitude ridge replaces it. We remain under this
ridge through the end of the period.

The period is expected to be dry. Temperatures are still expected to
be much above average for the weekend and then cool down to around
average through the work week. Saturday and Sunday are expected to
be 15-25 degrees above average with highs in central SD reaching in
to the low to mid 90s. Saturday and Sunday night lows are expected
to be 15-20 degrees above average, actual temps in the mid to upper
50s. Starting Monday night, lows will be closer to average, in the
40s. Sunday afternoon, as the low moves across Canada and the
surface level trough starts to move into our region, winds will
begin to gust around 30-35 mph. These winds will increase Monday as
the cold front moves through, with 35+ mph wind gusts possible over
central SD and 30-35 mph gusts possible east of the Missouri River.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Strong southerly winds will persist through this afternoon with
gusts around 30 knots expected at all 4 terminals. Improving
conditions are expected at KPIR/KMBG late this afternoon into
early this evening as a cold front pushes through diminishing wind
speeds and the wind direction switches to the north-northeast.
Winds diminish for KABR/KATY by early this evening as well.
Otherwise, skies will remain clear for the next 24 hours with VFR
conditions expected to prevail.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Vipond