385
FXUS63 KABR 221741
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cool conditions today, along with light winds.

- Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures for the
  early part of the work week. Above normal temperatures return
  Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The current forecast is on track with few changes anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Upper level northwest flow will set up today behind an exiting
shortwave. The flow will become more zonal tonight before a
shortwave trough moves in on Monday. The strongest energy with the
trough looks to remain across the far northern CWA and over North
Dakota.

At the surface, high pressure will be over the region today, keeping
conditions cool and dry, and winds light. The high will get pushed
east of the area late tonight as low pressure approaches from the
west. The low, and its associated frontal boundary, will track
across western South Dakota Monday morning, and across central South
Dakota Monday afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the low will usher
warmer air back into the region. With a general lack of moisture and
instability, currently not expecting any precipitation in
association with the front.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s. Highs on
Monday will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Monday evening an upper level trough starts to move across SD as
well as the surface level cold front. This will be moving into west
central MN Tuesday morning. Behind this, high pressure moves in for
most of the period. Sunday, a cold front from a low in Canada is
pushed northwest to southeast across SD by more high pressure.

Most of the period is expected to be dry. Sunday has the only chance
for some rain with that cold front moving across the area. Chances
peak at around 15%. This has the potential to increase with future
model runs. Temperatures are still expected to be above normal
through the period, peaking on Thursday with highs 10-20 degrees
above normal. The highest temperatures look to be in north central
SD. After this peak, temperatures will slowly decrease to around 5-
10 degrees above normal. Lows are expected to be 10-15 degrees
through the period. Winds on Thursday could gust up to 35 mph over
areas west of the James River valley due to a pressure gradient
between the high and a low just off the Rockies. Otherwise, gusts
are expected to be around or less than 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KF