Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
391 FXUS63 KABR 201406 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 906 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm today with high temperatures in the 80s. - Cooler and windy conditions are expected Saturday, with peak wind gusts reaching over 35 mph in areas west of the James River Valley. - Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures Sunday into early next week. Above normal temperatures return for the second half of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 905 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 No changes planned to the today period forecast. UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Upper level zonal flow will be over the area today. Will see the flow become more southwesterly tonight as a shortwave trough skirts the area. As the trough exits to the northeast, a more zonal flow pattern will return on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure currently over the region will get pushed east today ahead of a low pressure system that looks to reach the western Dakotas by this evening. The low, and its associated frontal boundary, will track across the CWA late tonight/early Saturday morning. May see a few showers or thunderstorms (15 to 20 percent chance) along the front during the overnight hours, mainly across west central Minnesota where about 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35 to 40 knots of bulk shear will be in place. Behind the front, cooler air will move into the area on Saturday. A decent pressure gradient also sets up behind the exiting front on Saturday, with wind gusts in excess of 35 mph possible, especially across central South Dakota. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Saturday evening, we have an upper level low to our north over ND which will move to the east through the day Sunday. An upper level trough will move in from the west for Tuesday. The surface level low will track across southern Canada with its cold front draped across our region. This front will move west to east across SD Tuesday. A high amplitude upper level ridge moves in starting Wednesday morning. High pressure at the surface remains in place through the end of the period. The long term is expected to be dry. There are no PoPs currently forecast to be above 10%. Temperatures through the period are expected to increase and move back into the above normal category. By the end of the period, temperatures are expected to be in the high 70s to low 80s which is 10-15 degrees above normal. Winds after Tuesday will be generally from the south with gusts less than 25 mph. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight. Low-level wind shear is forecast to develop over the KATY region late in the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Parkin