399
FXUS63 KABR 011901
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts out of the southeast at 35 to near 45 mph will slowly
  diminish this evening.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather from
  mid afternoon into this evening. The main threats with the
  stronger storms will be large hail and strong wind gusts, but a
  tornado cannot be ruled out.

- The active weather pattern of showers and thunderstorms persists
  through the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Daytime heating and elevated lapse rates over western SD will assist
in the rapid development of thunderstorms in the next 2-3 hours. We
will be monitoring these storms as they near or develop across our
central SD counties around or shortly after 21Z. Initial storms will
be capable of producing large hail around 2 inches in diameter,
strong winds over 60 mph. We won`t be able to rule out a tornado or
2 with these initial storms over our area. Forecast solutions have
come into better agreement on the timing of storms between 5-9pm
over central SD and the James River Valley from 8-10pm, before
shifting to far eastern SD and west central MN 10pm-midnight.
Significant low level clouds across the James River Valley and east
should act to weaken incoming storms, despite the significant low
level moisture and strong winds. Other than lingering light showers
over our far eastern counties after midnight, dry weather should
then be the rule for much of the forecast area through the rest of
the forecast period. The exception will be our far southwest
counties. We`ll be monitoring the latest trends, as some CAMS are
pin pointing the potential for a few showers or weak thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Our temperature forecast is currently running in the 20-40th
percentile (on the low side) Wednesday through Thursday. While the
25-75th percentiles are generally within about 5 degrees, be aware
that there is room for change and more likely to higher readings for
that period.

Dry weather will continue through Wednesday morning. There is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather Wednesday over our
counties west of the Missouri River. Dewpoints will be on the
increase again Wednesday late Wednesday afternoon/evening, getting
back into the low 60s. A band of higher CAPE values over 1000 J/kg
looks to move into at least our southwestern counties by around 21Z
as a trough shifts across western SD. The main surface low over
eastern CO will push southeast across western KS/OK Thursday morning.

The unsettled (at least a 30 percent chance of precipitation every 6
hours) will continue through Thursday evening, with more afternoon
and evening shower and thunderstorm anticipated through the upcoming
weekend. The 500mb trough currently over the west coast will shift
across the Northern Plains on Tuesday, and be reinforced Thursday
with a low sinking overhead before shifting across MN late Thursday
night into Friday. While a brief ridge may shift in Friday night, an
overall trough type of pattern will quickly return for the rest of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Elevated winds out of the south to southeast gusting 30 to near
40kts will continue at all locations, weakest at MBG and PIR.
These wind will slowly diminish overnight behind the surface
through. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop near/west of
PIR/MBG by around 22Z and shift over those sites by around 01Z
Tuesday as they near ABR. Expect storms to weaken as they move
near ATY mainly after 03Z. Still, particularly for PIR/MBG large
hail over golf ball size and winds over 60-70mph will be possible
in the strongest storms.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF