110
FXAK69 PAFG 151048 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
157 AM AKDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temps are warming into the weekend and will continue to run warmer
into next week as ridging aloft builds over the Mainland. Isolated
thunderstorms the next couple days will generally be relegated to
higher elevation terrain over the eastern half of the Interior with
dry weather out west. Storms will also be likely the next few days
over the E Brooks Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 539 arctic low centered over the Chukchi Sea. There is
a 570 dam upper level high centered over SW AK with the ridge axis
extending northeast to the Beaufort Sea. There is a subtle
shortwave trough dropping south over the AK Range with an area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with it. Surface
high pressure persists over the Beaufort Sea with another high
over the Norton Sound, both of which are around 1027 mb.

Model Discussion...
Models are in excellent agreement with the general large scale
pattern into next week as well as with overall basic details.
Forecast confidence is high with a favored blend to NAM nest for
winds and a blend of everything for all the other details.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Temps are warming through the weekend with some low 80s today, and
widespread 80s on Sunday. It`ll be a few degrees cooler on Monday
but still warm with some isolated low 80s. It will generally be
drier as well, with isolated thunder today and tomorrow generally
over higher elevation terrain. It will generally be partly cloudy
otherwise. Light north winds today will turn more westerly the
next couple of days.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Warming the next few days as ridging aloft builds in. Southwest
winds to 30 mph will gradually weaken over the NW Arctic by Sunday
night. North winds over the YK Delta will remain blustery. It`ll
be dry otherwise with no notable weather besides some continued
low stratus and fog over the marine waters, as well as the
obviously warm temps.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
An arctic low off the Chukchi coast will continue to support 25 to
30 mpg winds through today before they gradually wane. Chances for
showers will increase over the W Arctic as the low drops south
Sunday night into Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms today over the
Brooks Range will be possible from Anaktuvuk Pass east, and again
on Sunday although more widespread, with scattered thunderstorms
and heavier showers possible Monday as the arctic low shifts
south.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Tuesday, the arctic low over the Chukchi is retrograding
southwest and toward Siberia with Yukon ridging building over the
E Interior, which means continued warmer temps over the Mainland
and increased chances for thunderstorms. This general pattern
looks to persist into next weekend, with a summery pattern for the
Interior and Brooks Range, and seasonal temps and conditions over
the West Coast and N Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ridging aloft builds which means warming temps over the Mainland
and even out west. Widespread 80s by Sunday over the Interior with
min RH values in the 20s, and into the lower 20s over the Yukon
Flats. Isolated wet thunderstorms will only be possible over the
higher elevations of the E Interior and AK Range, as well as over
the Brooks Range through Sun. Monday, widely scattered
thunderstorms are possible over the E Brooks as well as toward the
AK Range as a thermal low develops.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water from snowmelt has made its way down rivers to the coast
on the Central North Slope. The high water is caused by warm
temperatures and snow melt in the Brooks Range. It is expected that
water levels will wither fall slowly or remain steady as increased
warming over the Brooks Range may allow for additional snowmelt.
The Colville is running near bankfull at Umiat and will likely
remain so for a while.

Periods of heavy showers fell along the North Slopes of the Alaska
Range, and over the Goodpaster River Basin, and the Upper Charlie
and Upper Fortymile River Basins the past few days. Rainfall amounts
range from 0.5 to nearly 2 inches, with the heaviest amounts along
the Alaska Range to the east of Denali Park. This water is now
working its way down rivers. The small rivers have now crested and
are beginning to fall. No flooding is expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.

&&

$$

Ahsenmacher