880
FXAK69 PAFG 082333
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
333 PM AKDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Arctic troughing is dropping south across the interior
with a broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms along and
ahead of a NE to SW oriented cold front roughly extending from
Newtok to Galena to Beaver as of 2 PM where a distinct WSW to NWN
wind shift is apparent in surface obs. Temperatures are mainly in
the 50s and 60s across the interior and in the 30s north of the
Brooks Range where north winds, stratus, and even a few snow showers
are streaming off the Arctic Ocean. The front stalls Tuesday night
then lifts back to the north on Wednesday resulting in a narrow axis
of rain on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a secondary disturbance
tracks along the front. This disturbance also enhances precipitation
along the Brooks Range in the form of an elevation-dependent
rain/snow mix with a an inch or two of wet snow accumulation
possible above 2500 ft by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- The cold front continues to push south-southeast across the
eastern interior today.

- A secondary disturbance embedded within deep WSW flow a band of
more stratiform rain roughly between Holy Cross and and Circle on
Wednesday.

- Wednesday should be the coolest day this week as the cool air mass
settles in with clouds and rain preventing much surface heating, but
clearing skies are expected Thursday into Friday allowing for more
moderation in temperatures.

- Very comfortable weather expected late this week through the
weekend with highs around 70F and lows around 50F and little if any
rain expected until Monday or Tuesday next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Blustery north to northwest winds continue along the West Coast
and northwestern interior and should diminish by Wednesday night.

- An unseasonably dry air mass moves across northern portions of the
Western Interior where min RH values possibly dipping below 30% by
Thursday when light winds allow for deep mixing.

- Models seem to increasingly support a chunk of the Arctic trough
to split off and bring rain chances to the Seward Pen and locations
adjacent to Kotzebue Sound Thursday into Friday. This system may
instigate a transition to a more active pattern early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Low stratus and areas of primarily `nocturnal` fog continue along
the Arctic Coast through Wednesday with some clearing from east to
west possible Wednesday night and Thursday, especially for
locations east of Nuiqsut.

- An elevation-dependent rain/snow mix over the eastern Brooks Range
on Tuesday spreads west Tuesday night and Wednesday including a
chance for minor snow accumulation at Atigun Pass Wednesday AM.

- Much below normal temperatures continue through Wednesday with
gradual moderation through the weekend and above normal temperatures
returning Sunday into early next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Over the past 24 hours observed precipitation amounts ended up
verifying around the 10th percentile of model guidance so we`ve
pared back precipitation chances and amounts considerably relative
to the previous forecast package. The progression of the cold front
seems more-or-less on track with it settling south this evening
before stalling late tonight and lifting back north as a warm front
on Wednesday. A 3-5 mb gradient sets up across the AK Range south of
this front, which brings to potential for a rain shadow between the
mountains and focused band of frontal precipitation roughly between
Takotna and Central where 1/3" to 2/3" of rainfall is forecast. That
rainfall tapers off on Thursday with mostly dry weather expected
through Saturday, except for the potential for a disturbance closing
off near the Kotzebue Sound and bringing rain chances there.
Elsewhere across the northern interior, the dry air mass in place
combined with deeper mixing on Thursday should support RH values
dipping to near and perhaps below 30% on Thu/Fri supporting a return
to more fire activity, but winds appear light at this time. There`s
growing agreement that the seasonably moist air mass across the
interior doesn`t make it far out of our area and may return more
quickly early next week than previously forecast. These rain chances
return as the transient/weakening ridge shifts east across the area
on Saturday with southerly flow increasing Sunday into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Observations and satellite imagery indicate the back
edge of a cold front lies from Grayling to Galena to Atigun Pass as
of noon Tuesday. Conditions are mostly clearing behind this with
increasing north and northwest winds and RHs remaining in the 30-40%
range through the week. As the front moves across the Interior
tonight, it will stall from McGrath to Fairbanks to just north of
Eagle with areas south and east becoming the focal point for shower
activity. Have backed off on QPF amounts with this system, but still
have good confidence in increasing rain across a more narrow strip
of the Interior Tuesday night through Wednesday night as southwest
flow aloft brings in more moisture. There will still be isolated
thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon. The development of a
pressure gradient across the Alaska Range Wednesday morning will
likely shadow out areas south of Fairbanks to the crest of the
Alaska Range from much precipitation on Wednesday.

Precip looks to continue Wednesday night north of Fairbanks with
fires in the White Mountains having good chances of wetting rains
with this stratiform rain event and no thunderstorms are expected.
Total QPF with these systems now looks to range from 0.25"-0.75"
mainly from McGrath to Fairbanks to the Yukon River Bridge and east
to the border. Lower amounts closer to the Alaska Range and over the
Fortymile. Showers decrease on Thursday with warming and drying
Friday into the weekend. Sunday looks like the warmest day with
highs pushing into the mid to upper 70s across the Interior. Long
range ensembles support another cool period Tuesday through the end
of next week with another warm-up thereafter.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A warming and drying trend is expected during the extended period as
widespread below normal temperatures transition to above normal
beneath a building ridge and increasingly sunny skies this weekend.
The North Slope will be slowest to warm up, but warm southerly
downslope flow appears like to spread west to east early next week.
Primarily dry weather is expected across northern Alaska through the
weekend, but a sneaky northwest flow shortwave may result in rain
chances near the Canadian border this weekend ahead of a building
ridge. A more amplified south-southwesterly regime is possible at
the end of the extended as the ridging shifts east into Canada. If
this occurs then diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will
return to Northern AK.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-811-853-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
&&

$$

Kutta/Chriest