Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
102 FXAK69 PAFG 101352 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 552 AM AKDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorm chances increase across parts of the Interior the next couple of days, with wetter and cooler weather for the Alaska Range and the southern Interior. && .DISCUSSION... Analysis... Models are in good agreement that a few upper level lows with some pretty decent vorticity maxes associated with them at 500mb will move over the region over the next few days. This will bring opportunities for showers and thunderstorms south of the Brooks Range, especially for today and tomorrow. The biggest chances will be for the central, western, and eastern Interior as those areas have the highest model forecast CAPE and lowest model forecast LI values. Central and Eastern Interior... Gradual cooling begins today as showers and isolated thunderstorm increase in probability across the S Interior to the Alaska Range. Today, numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will be possible. Some showers will be quite heavy, and it is expected that showers will form into more organized rainfall as they drift south toward the AK Range, with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially over the E Alaska Range. This general pattern persists into Wed, with cooler temps and wetter weather for the S Interior, with the only dry area over the Yukon Flats where it will remain in the mid 70s. West Coast and Western Interior... Warmer weather continues today especially over the Western Interior, but it will spread over parts of the Seward Peninsula as well. Blustery N winds continue over the Bering Strait into Tue. With the warmer weather, it will also bring thunderstorm chances, especially from the Yukon Valley to the Delta, and across the E Seward Peninsula. Some of these storms today may move offshore into Norton Sound as well with northeasterly steering flow. Waves will keep moving through the flow on Tue and Wed with more thunderstorm chances mainly over the Interior, along with locally heavy showers, especially over the Middle Kusko and Lower Yukon Valleys. North Slope and Brooks Range... Once again, fog and low stratus, as is typical this time of year, will be present over much of the Arctic coast most of the next several days, with some possible further south toward the northern Brooks Range during the morning time frames. With a tightening pressure gradient south of an Arctic high, the North Slope and especially Arctic coast will see increasing winds from the east to northeast lasting through the next few days. The highest winds are favored over the western Arctic, where winds of 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts will be likely. Some showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible in the Central and Eastern Brooks Range with a west- tracking upper low today with a lower chance for showers on Tuesday. A gap in the low stratus and fog has moved ashore overnight and should persist over the Arctic coast through the day today. By evening, the low stratus and fog should move back in from the north. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. Extended Forecast Days 3-6... After Wednesday, the global models and their ensemble suites continue to slowly build in ridging aloft from the Arctic Coast and into the Mainland, into Saturday. It does look to get warmer over the Interior again, but not necessarily hot, with the chance for daily afternoon thunderstorms. Out west, there will be a closed low meandering nearby which may keep it cooler. && .FIRE WEATHER... The hot, dry and, windy conditions will fade the next few of days as temperatures slowly cool and minimum RH levels creep up above the 20 percent range. The other story will be increased chances for thunderstorms today along the thermal trough over the S Interior all the way to the Yukon Delta and W interior. These will be wet storms, with areas of widely scattered thunderstorms possible. It looks more showery and cooler over the S Interior Tue and Wed with chances for wetting rains. && .HYDROLOGY... Sunshine and relatively warm temperatures continue over the N Slope and Brooks Range, with snowmelt continuing along with gradual rotting of river ice. Ice jams have progressed downstream past Horseshoe Bend, with water levels increasing around Horseshoe Bend. A small ice jam has formed at the Itkillik River confluence four miles upstream of Nuiqsut. Water levels on the Kuparuk River near Deadhorse have risen to within moderate flood stage at 37.8 feet due to a likely ice jam downstream of the gage near Deadhorse. Water levels in the Colville River at Umiat have increased by 1 foot since yesterday with the flood stage approaching action stage. The Sag River at Pump Station 3 is also experiencing higher water levels with it crossing action stage of 19 ft and heading toward minor flood stage of 20ft. These increased water levels are projected to continue to move downstream in the coming days. These water levels could potentially continue to rise into the workweek. With the relatively warm temperatures expected to continue, we could see gradual snowmelt leading to further increasing water levels on the Colville River, Kuparuk River, and the Sag River along with the ice jams. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ806-854-856. Gale Warning for PKZ807. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Gale Warning for PKZ857. Gale Warning for PKZ858. && $$