Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
467 FXAK69 PAFG 170807 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1207 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers over the Interior taper off later today with a brief reprieve in the wet weather. A powerful low over the Bering Sea will make landfall in Bristol Bay, with the front clipping the YK Delta with gales and more rainfall, which will spread into the Yukon Valley and eventually the Interior. Cooler temps gradually settle over the Mainland late week as arctic air seeps south. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... A deep low along the subtropical jet stream is developing over the Bering Sea this morning, with that surface center currently undergoing bomb cyclogenesis, with the pressure currently analyzed around 975 mb near the Pribilof Islands. Over the Mainland, a weakening upper low center is still migrating east over the Interior, with that center analyzed around 537 dam aloft. Rain showers wrapping around the back-end of the low are moving through the E Interior. Forecast and Model Discussion... The numerical weather models are fairly well clustered on the strong low which will move into Bristol Bay, but there is a noted trend north with thr front which will impact the YK Delta, so well will shift that front north with a blend to the NAM, with the main impact that gale force winds also move north. The coastal threats will stay well to the south of the Yukon Delta, however. After this low, a blend of models will capture the showers which move into the Interior again Wednesday and Thursday, with cooler air seeping south by Friday as weak arctic trough sets up over the Mainland. Central and Eastern Interior... Showers are tapering off today and by this afternoon, peaks of some sun can be expected. South winds increase to 45 mph tonight as a low dives into the Gulf. Dry weather will turn to more showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, and that will continue into Thursday as it becomes more steady light rainfall over the S Interior and Alaska Range. Rain is slowly tapering off Thu night. West Coast and Western Interior... The next strong Bering low is moving into Bristol Bay today, with the leading front bringing another round of rainfall and wind to the YK Delta and Norton Sound. However, this low track is much further south with offshore winds. Gales are expected to impact the Yukon Delta to Saint Lawrence Island into this evening, then the low quickly shifts into the Gulf and winds will taper off. Showers will continue intermittently into Friday as the flow remains onshore. Some snow showers are possible below 1000 feet by Thu night. North Slope and Brooks Range... Sporadic rain showers and fog will continue for the next several days with weak low pressure persisting in the region. Snow levels are falling to 1000 feet or less by Thu night with light snow showers impacting the Brooks Range and Arctic Plain as arctic air seeps south. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Arctic troughing is expected to move across the Mainland Friday through Monday, with the main storm track remaining south. This should allow for gradual drying, although higher elevation snow showers are possible, especially over the E Interior as temps cool, possibly below seasonal norms by late weekend. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .HYDROLOGY... More rainfall is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with another 0.5 to 0.75 inches over the YK Delta and Lower Yukon Valley/MIddle Kusko Valley. Smaller stream rises are likely, but will not be significant. Elsewhere, no concerns as rivers are running low due to fairly low snow levels. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-816-851-853. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-852. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854. Gale Warning for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. && $$ Ahsenmacher