046
FXAK69 PAFG 152039
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1239 PM AKDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The ongoing forecast remains relatively unchanged today as ridging
builds over mainland Alaska. Expect increasing temperatures across
Northern Alaska today and a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow.
Showers and isolated storms remain largely over the higher terrain
north and east of Fairbanks and in the Eastern Brooks Range.
Showers and storms turn a bit more numerous Monday and especially
on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
The models initialized well with the 12/18z runs and there aren`t
too many disagreements through Tuesday. At 500mb we have a 570
decameter ridge centered from Southwest AK through Arctic Village
with a weak wave of energy east of Prince William Sound. Over the
Arctic, a strong 538 decameter bowling ball low is in the
Chukchi. This low will push east today, then south over the Bering
Strait Region by Tuesday evening. While this happens, the high
over the Interior will split with ridging over russia, and ridging
over the Yukon extending west into the Interior.

Surface Analysis...
At the surface, there is a high draped across much of Northern
Alaska and a weak thermal trough over the Central Interior. This
is helping spark isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain, specifically the AK Range, White Mountains and
Brooks Range. The thermal trough will drift north tomorrow with
scattered showers and isolated storms centered over the Eastern
Brooks Range. A few storms will develop north and east of
Fairbanks as well as over the AK Range, but not nearly as
numerous as the Brooks Range.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm and dry over the valleys today with isolated showers and
storms over the terrain. There is a nonzero chance to see a shower
in the valleys this afternoon but most areas remain dry. Tomorrow
will be a similar story, though a couple of degrees warmer with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for most. Expect mid 80s in the
Yukon Flats. Monday`s showers and storms become a bit more
numerous, especially in the northern Interior as westerly flow
provides waves of energy moving from west to east. Tuesday is
looking like the most prolific day for storms in the Interior
through the short term with the possibility of widely scattered
storms developing in the afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Warming temperatures are expected today and tomorrow as a ridge
aloft builds in. South to southwest winds gusting to 40 mph over
Bering Strait will weaken tonight and tomorrow. Northerly winds
develop over the YK Delta tomorrow keeping it cool and breezy.
Otherwise looking forward, Tuesday looks to be the most active
day, especially over the Western Interior with widely scattered
thunderstorms possible from the Nulato Hills east. Temperatures
will remain seasonably mild for most of the area with low to mid
70s in the Interior and 50s to low 60s along the coast. The
exception will be the YK Delta Coast where highs may hang around
the upper 40s due to northerly wind off of the water.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Winds along the Chukchi Sea Coast remain gusting to 20-40 mph
through tomorrow afternoon then weaken overnight. An arctic low in
the Chukchi Sea will drop south tomorrow with a front bringing a few
rain showers along the NW Arctic Coast in the afternoon. This
front moves east overnight and through Monday with showers
possible from Deadhorse west. Otherwise, the bulk of the activity
remains over the Central and Eastern Brooks Range tomorrow
through Tuesday with isolated to widely scattered storms.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
An arctic trough over the West Coast providing southerly flow
aloft on Wednesday will shift west during the latter part of the
week with showers along the coast and storms in the Western
Interior. Ridging over the Eastern Interior keeps it warm with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather is expected over much of the Interior with
highs in the 70s and low 80s today and minimum RHs in the
teens/low 20s from the Yukon Flats south and east. RHs in the low
30s expected elsewhere across the Interior. Tomorrow will be
warmer and a bit drier with highs in the low to mid 80s across
the Interior and minimum RHs around 25-30% for most spots. The
lowest RHs reside from the Yukon Flats south and east to the AlCan
Border where they can be as low as 20%. Showers and isolated
storms over the terrain today and tomorrow with most valley
locations remaining dry. Monday looks to be a bit more active,
especially in the Northern Interior and Central/Eastern Brooks
Range. Tuesday is looking a bit more prolific with storms,
especially in the Western Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water from snowmelt has made its way down rivers to the coast
on the Central North Slope. The high water is caused by warm
temperatures and snow melt in the Brooks Range. It is expected that
water levels will either fall slowly or remain steady as
increased warming over the Brooks Range may allow for additional
snowmelt. The Colville is running near bankfull at Umiat and will
likely remain so for a while.

Most rivers in the Interior have crested and are on their way down
from the previous heavy rain in the AK Range. This trend should
continue today and tomorrow but additional thunderstorms are
likely in the AK Range and higher terrain of the Interior, though
they will be isolated in nature. No flooding is anticipated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Bianco