930
FXAK69 PAFG 160932
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 AM AKDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot day is expected for the Interior today with widespread 80
degree reading as a ridge aloft remains parked overhead. This will
limit precip chances and it will largely be cloud free except over
higher elevation terrain where there will be isolated
thunderstorms once again. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
be more prevalent over the Brooks Range. Warmer temps continue
into Monday with chances for thunderstorms increasing Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a dominant 570 dam upper ridge over the entire S
Mainland. There is a meandering cutoff arctic low over the Chukchi
Sea, with heights around 538 dam. There is a small shortwave
trough over the Prince William Sound area. A surface high around
1026 mb is situated over Saint Lawrence Island with another 1022
high over the Beaufort Sea near the coast. There is a 1014 mb low
underneath the aforementioned arctic low, and a weak thermal
trough over the E Interior.

Model Discussion...
Models are locked into the synoptic scale pattern with the main
discrepancies revolving around challenges models normally have
with things like thunderstorms. We favor a NAM hi-res blend for
winds, with a blend to all models for precip chances, temps, and
thunderstorms.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warmer today than yesterday, with widespread low to mid 80s over
the Interior. It`ll be mostly sunny with only isolated
thunderstorm chances over the higher mountain terrain, and even
then it will be fairly spotty.

Monday, another warm day with more 80s and upper 70s, with a
better chance for thunderstorms over the Alaska Range, and also
farther north over the slopes of the Brooks Range to the Yukon
Flats and White Mtns.

Tuesday, still warm, but a couple degrees cooler with a better
chance for thunderstorms everywhere, although the focus will be
over the Central Interior to the Upper Koyukuk, the White Mtns,
and into the Yukon Flats since the steering flow will be southerly
and the most instability will be in those places.

West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure shifts west from Saint Lawrence Island and this will
increase north winds over the YK Delta, but it will mostly be
the same weather today except a couple degrees warmer perhaps,
with general west flow everywhere else. Monday remains warmer,
with a much better chance for afternoon isolated thunderstorms and
heavy showers over the Kuskokwim Valley and into the Kuskokwim
Mountains. Meanwhile, the arctic low will be diving south over the
NW Arctic, bringing chances for rain showers from Point Hope down
the Bering Strait, by Tuesday. Widespread thunderstorm chances
develop Wed over the Interior. Some storms may be strong over the
northern half of the Interior, from Galena northward.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Showers with isolated thunderstorms are expanding in coverage
today over the Central and E Brooks Range as a disturbance passes
over. Meanwhile, a meandering arctic low will continue to bring
southwest winds to the NW Arctic with increasing chances for
showers reaching Utqiagvik and then to Umiat by Monday. Showers
with isolated thunderstorms continue over the E and Central
Brooks Range through Tuesday as westerly flow over that area
continues. The E Arctic has cleared, but stratus is lurking
offshore, but it may not come back until tonight, so a sunnier day
is expected again today.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The general consensus among the global suite of numerical weather
models and their ensembles, as well as the ECMWF AI Machine
Learning model, is that weak Interior ridging aloft will be in
place Wednesday, with an arctic low shifting west to Siberia, and
another Gulf of AK low developing. This is a pretty typical
midsummer pattern with seasonal temps and chances for
thunderstorms daily, along with heavier rainfalls over the SE
Interior to AK Range. It`ll otherwise be cooler over the West
Coast with shower chances largely ending by the end of week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today is even hotter and still generally dry, with only some very
spotty isolated wet thunderstorms over the higher elevation
terrain of the Interior, such as the Alaska Range and White Mtns
as well as some of the higher hills near Fairbanks. Temps will
reach the mid 80s over the Yukon Flats with lower 80s elsewhere,
with min RHs in the 20s again, and some upper teens over the Yukon
Flats.

Monday, instability increases along a thermal trough over the
Kuskokwim Valley to Kuskokwim Mtns, with the possibility of
scattered wet thunderstorms, with isolated wet thunderstorms
across the remainder of the Interior including higher based storms
over the Yukon Flats. Temps are a couple degrees cooler, but
still above seasonal norms.

Tuesday, more widely scattered thunderstorms over a broad
footprint across the Interior, but uncertainty is higher, as the
timing of a wave moving north is hard to predict with certainty
right now. However, these storms will be quite wet, with wetting
rains over the Central Interior to Upper Koyukuk. More isolated
wet thunder will be over the E Interior, with southerly steering
winds. The ridge is weakening is temps are a few degrees cooler
Tue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water from snowmelt has made its way down rivers to the coast
on the Central North Slope. The high water is caused by warm
temperatures and snow melt in the Brooks Range. It is expected that
water levels will either fall slowly or remain steady as
increased warming over the Brooks Range may allow for additional
snowmelt. The Colville is running near bankfull at Umiat and will
likely remain so for a while.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.

PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher