149
FXAK69 PAFG 201456
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
656 AM AKDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm slightly today compared to Wed for the
West Coast, the Western Interior and the North Slope, while the
Eastern Interior is slightly cooler. Most areas will warm and dry
from Fri into the weekend. Areas south of the Brooks Range will
remain warm and dry into next week, while the North Slope cools to
near normal and has higher chances of rain and snow next week.

Showers will be likely, possibly heavy, from late this afternoon
through Fri AM near the Alaska Range and in the Interior southeast
of Eielson AFB. Could see 0.50 inch in the area south of McGrath
to Eielson AFB to Eagle between this afternoon and Fri afternoon
with local areas getting 1.00 inch. Small creeks in steep terrain
of the AK Range and the Goodpaster, Upper Charlie and Upper
Fortymile Rivers could see rapid rises tonight and Fri. Other than
this, expect scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms most of the Interior today with isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Fri. Will see a
significant drying trend over the weekend.

Stratus and fog along the Arctic Coast will persist through the
weekend with fog becoming dense in the early morning hours and
then thinning in the PM each day. The West Coast will likely see
stratus and fog develop and push onshore tonight and continue
through the weekend, thinning in the PM each day.

Dense smoke in the Harding Lake area will likely continue into Fri
morning, and then the smoke will move south of the Tanana River
as northeast winds develop Fri PM and continue into the weekend.

Aloft...
A strong ridge stretching from NW Canada across Northern AK to the
Chukchi Sea will persist through the weekend, and then possibly
weaken next week.

An upper level trough over the Gulf of AK will move over the SE
Alaska Range by 4am Thu, to Denali to Eagle by 4am Fri, and to
McGrath to Eagle by 4pm Fri before weakening. This will bring
numerous showers with significant rain to the AK Range and SE
Interior late today into Fri.


Surface pattern...
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Eagle to Ambler to
Point Hope will move to Eagle to Tanana to Ambler to Point Hope today,
then move to Chicken to Nenana to Ambler to Point hope on Fri,
and to Northway to McGrath to Ambler on Sat. A second thermal low
pressure trough stretching from Eagle to Talkeetna will move to
Tanana to McGrath this afternoon, then to Nenana to McGrath on
Fri and then south over the weekend. These thermal troughs will
serve to focus instability and convective showers, with the locus
of convection shifting gradually southwest over the next several
days.

High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of AK will persist into
the weekend. This will cause stratus and fog along the Arctic
Coast into the weekend.

High pressure will build over the Northern Bering Sea tonight into
the weekend. This will cause stratus and fog along the West Coast
to form tonight and continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 00Z, models initialize 10-20 meters too low on heights under
the 500 mb ridge at Utqiagvik, Fairbanks and Whitehorse. The NAM
keeps this ridge stronger than other models through today and is
preferred on upper level feature due to this. Because of this
prefer the NAM for features aloft through the weekend. This will
include leaning on NAM as preference for convection.

Temperatures will warm slightly today compared to Wed for the
West Coast, Western Interior and North Slope, while the Eastern
Interior is slightly cooler. Most areas will warm and dry slightly
from Fri into the weekend. Areas south of the Brooks Range will
remain warm and dry into next week, while the North Slope cools to
near normal and has higher chances of rain and snow next week.

With precipitation and convection, models show similar trends
with showers likely, possibly heavy, from late this afternoon
through Fri AM near the Alaska Range and the Interior southeast of
Eielson AFB. Could see 0.50 inch in the area south of McGrath to
Eielson AFB to Eagle between this afternoon and Fri noon with
local areas getting 1.00 inch. Small creeks in steep terrain of
the AK Range and the Goodpaster, Upper Charlie and Upper Fortymile
Rivers could see rapid rises tonight and Fri. Other than this,
expect scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms most of the Interior today, with isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Fri with an area of
widely scattered thunderstorms Fri PM along the AK Range over
over the Western Interior. Will see a significant drying trend and
reduction in number of thunderstorms over the weekend.

At the surface, models verify well at 06Z. Models show similar
solutions at the surface through the weekend. Through Sat expect
winds less than 15 mph over the Interior except 15 mph gusting to
25 mph in Brooks Range Passes today through Sat with the strongest
winds in the PM each day. Through Sat expect winds along the
Coast to be less than 25 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Eagle to Ambler
will move to Eagle to Tanana to Ambler today, then move to
Chicken to Nenana to Ambler on Fri, and to Northway to McGrath
to Ambler on Sat.  A second thermal low pressure trough stretching
from Eagle to Talkeetna will move to Tanana to McGrath this afternoon,
then to Nenana to McGrath on Fri. These thermal troughs will
serve to focus instability and convective showers, with the
locus of convection shifting gradually southwest over the
next several days.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler and more humid today
in the southern Interior, and slightly warmer and drier in
the northern Interior. Expect showers likely with wetting rain
south of McGrath to Eielson AFB to Eagle between this afternoon
and Fri noon. Other than this, expect scattered showers and isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms most of the Interior today,
with isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
Fri with an area of widely scattered thunderstorms Fri PM along
the AK Range. Will see a significant drying trend and reduction
in number of thunderstorms over the weekend.

Through Sat expect winds less than 15 mph over the Interior,
except 15 mph gusting to 25 mph in Brooks Range Passes today
through Sat with the strongest winds in the PM each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Could see 0.50 inch in the area south of McGrath to Eielson AFB to
Eagle between this afternoon and Fri noon with local areas getting
1.00 inch. Small creeks in steep terrain of the AK Range and the
Goodpaster, Upper Charlie and Upper Fortymile Rivers could see
rapid rises tonight and Fri.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ839-840.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
&&

$$

JB