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FXAK69 PAFG 271234
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
434 AM AKDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering showers today will give way to a very nice weekend
in the Interior with plenty of sunshine and seasonable late Fall
temperatures. These beautiful conditions will extend up to the
Brooks Range and Arctic Coast as well. The West Coast will see
some showers through Saturday, but conditions will generally
remain quiet through Monday. St. Lawrence Island can expect 25 to
30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph Friday night and Saturday.
Weather will likely become more active for the West Coast from
Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Forecast Discussion...Aloft at 500 mb, a broad area
of low pressure persists over the west coast and Bering Sea. Skies
are clearing behind a shortwave that lies from Noatak to Hughes to
Minchumina and is moving northeast. Weak ridging is pushing into
the Interior and North Slope from the south. This ridge will
continue to build through Sunday and even into Monday, bringing
very pleasant weather to most of the area. The one exception will
be south of Nome along the West Coast where showers will persist
under the influence of the persistent upper level low that will
slowly shift south to Bristol Bay. At the surface, high pressure
will build over the Interior and the North Slope beneath the ridge
while lower pressure will persist over the Bering Sea. A strong
low pressure system will move into the Gulf of Alaska on Monday.

The inherited forecast is on track and we will only make minor
changes. We will add in some showers north and west of Fairbanks
through this afternoon and also for the northwest Interior on
Sunday night and Monday to match the latest model guidance and
what the current radar is depicting.

Central and Eastern Interior...There will be a few lingering
showers today before the building ridge begins to cause skies to
clear. A very pleasant weekend is in store for the area. Winds
will be light except for southerly gap winds through Alaska Range
passes gusting to 30 mph from early Saturday morning through
Sunday. Highs will be in the 40s with some 50s across the Tanana
Valley Saturday through Monday. Lows will be in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Some showers continue beneath
the upper level low mainly just through Saturday and along the
coast with drying on Sunday. Skies in the Interior will remain
mostly clear through Monday. Winds will be easterly at 5 to 15
mph except near 20 mph Friday night and Saturday near Norton Sound
and northeast 25 to 30 mph through the Bering Strait and at St.
Lawrence Island through Saturday. Highs will be in the 40s with
lows near freezing.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Low stratus along the coast will
begin to lift on Saturday as the ridge builds from the south.
Mostly clear skies are expected in the Brooks Range and Arctic
Plain beginning Saturday morning. This will make for a beautiful
late fall weekend in these areas. Winds will be 15 mph or less
except around 20 mph near Kaktovik tonight through Saturday. Highs
will be mostly in the 30s with lows from near freezing along the
coast to the teens in the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 through 7...The extended forecast
period starting Monday will begin with a deep low in the Gulf of
Alaska and weak high pressure with south and southeast flow over
northern Alaska. Models begin to show significant differences
beginning on Tuesday. The ECMWF brings a weak low pressure system
from Kamchatka into the Bering Sea while the GFS skirts it south
to the Aleutians. Models still suggest the possibility of a strong
low pressure system moving into the Bering Sea on Thursday or
Friday. Ensembles still show a wide variety of strengths and
tracks, but show more strong and potentially impactful
solutions than they did 24 hours ago. It is still too early to
tell if the potential system on Thursday/Friday will bring any
threat of coastal flooding, but we will continue to monitor the
situation closely. The Interior and North Slope look to remain
mostly dry and with quiet weather during the whole timeframe.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-806-807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-850-851-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

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