694
FXAK69 PAFG 232118
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
118 PM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry weather continues in the Central and
Eastern Interior with showers and storms this afternoon from the
Western AK Range to the Brooks Range. The Interior could reach the
upper 80s by Wednesday. The threat of Isolated showers or
thunderstorms continue through Tuesday. Looking a bit farther, we
are monitoring a Bering Sea low which could bring some much needed
widespread rain to SW AK beginning on Wednesday, though there is
some uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
Ridging persists over the Interior while a wave of vorticity in
the Western Interior moving north to the Brooks Range today. This
piece of energy then pushes east over the ridge and through the
Brooks Range to Arctic Village it goes. There is an Arctic low in
the Beaufort Sea that is dropping south at 541 decameters. The
west coast will see a 528 dam low move into the Bering Tuesday
into Wednesday. Otherwise, ridging builds to 570 dam by Wednesday
over the Interior. High center moves over the northern Interior
by Thursday.


Central and Eastern Interior...
Above normal temperatures will persist over the Interior through
at least Wednesday. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s through
Tuesday. Mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. The main risk for showers
or thunderstorms will be west of the Dalton today and back over
the Interior on Monday and Tuesday during the aftn/evenings.
Wednesday looks to be a very hot day with the threat of storms
shifting to the western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus has burned off near the coast but could return later
tonight. Rain showers and thunderstorms will be in the Brooks
Range as a shortwave moves through. There will be a chance for a
thunderstorm from Red Dog northeast, but remain away from the
coast and south/west of Umiat.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Isolated thunderstorms possible today from the Western AK Range
north with widely scattered storms around McGrath. Most
thunderstorms remain east of Galena and Huslia as well. Isolated
storms move east tomorrow though it remains warm with highs in the
70s to low 80s both days. Along the coast, it stays dry through
Tuesday with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Hot and dry weather continues with highs getting into the mid-
upper 80s by Wednesday. Temperatures remain hot through the end of
the week. One system we are monitoring is a low in the Bering
which may bring a front to the West Coast on Wednesday. The low
looks to hang around through the end of the week so rain chances
continue along the West Coast and in the Western Interior. In the
Interior, a few models (GFS/ECMWF) are hinting at the ridge
shifting north allowing for an easterly wave which would bring
scattered thunderstorms to the Eastern and Central Interior on
Thursday. Thunderstorm chances could persist into the weekend
for the Interior.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry weather continues with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s through Tuesday. Mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Fortunately,
wind looks to remain relatively weak as well, so Red Flag criteria
will not be met. But expect minimum RHs around 20-30% today and
tomorrow. On Tuesday, it becomes a little more moist as minimum
RHs rise to 25-35% with the lowest values in the Yukon Flats.
Drier weather looks to return on Wednesday. Otherwise, expect
isolated thunderstorms today from the Western AK Range to the
Brooks range with the greatest risk or widely scattered storms
occurring in an area around McGrath and also from Hughes to the
Central Brooks Range. This area of storms moves east tomorrow with
most of the Central and Eastern Interior, as well as the Brooks
Range seeing a chance for a thunderstorm, especially in the higher
terrain. Isolated storm chances continue Tuesday afternoon as hot
and semi- dry conditions continue.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent heavy rains have led to higher water levels along the
Fortymile River, but drier conditions expected over the next
several days will allow water levels to fall this coming week.
Glacial fed rivers may begin to rise as warming temperatures lead
to increased high elevation snowmelt.

&&


.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
&&

$$