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FNAK79 PAFG 201439
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Spot Forecast for Hermit 141...Alaska Fire Service
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
639 AM AKDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 AKDT on June 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A thermal low pressure trough over the fire will move south over
the fire this afternoon, and then move further south of the
fire on Fri and Sat. The thermal trough will serve to focus instability
and convective showers, with the locus of convection shifting
southwest over the next several days. This trough will cause winds
to turn NE over the fire this afternoon, and remain northeast
tonight and remain northeast through the weekend.

Will see a drying and warming trend Fri into the weekend.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Isolated
                    showers through the day. Widely scattered thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 5 mph
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing to 6400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 mph.
Inversion burnoff...9 AM.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Widely scattered
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated
                    thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................20 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 8 mph.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL in the
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....East around 13 mph.
Inversion setup.....10 PM.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 10 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Northeast 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL increasing to 7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 16 mph.
Inversion burnoff...9 AM.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
Northeast winds around 8 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRADER
Requested by...Emmaly Gavin
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416243.7/AFG
.DELDT 06/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0