Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
930 FXAK67 PAJK 212313 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 313 PM AKDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .SHORT TERM...Short range forecast is decidedly more cloudy and damp than the last few days have been. This is thanks to a new low in the south central gulf that is spinning up a front into the panhandle today. As of 1 pm rain has only started on western Prince of Wales Island so far and a few intermittent sprinkles as far north as Juneau and Gustavus. Offshore buoys are showing an increase in winds associated with the front, with 23 kt sustained winds at the west Dixon Entrance buoy and 17 kt at Cape Edgecombe buoy. Into tonight, the front will continue to spread into the panhandle and expend most of its rainfall and wind on the southern half of the panhandle. Many areas of the south will likely see gusty winds overnight as the front moves in, but they are expected to fall short of frequent gusts to 40 mph. For marine areas, the gulf waters and Clarence Strait will see the most wind but are expected to top out at 25 kt at most. Winds and rain will start a gradual diminishing trend into Saturday as the primary front will have moved through. As the low center weakens and slowly tracks eastward over Haida Gwaii, bands of vorticity rotating about it will cause periodic showers across the panhandle. The most likely places to see showers on Saturday will be the south, but wouldn`t rule it out for anywhere as some showers may move in from Canada or develop in place due to a sunny break. Lowered high temperatures slightly for Saturday due to clouds, but should be a touch warmer than Friday. .LONG TERM...Extended forecast mainly features a showery start followed by drying conditions into mid to late next week. Upper level pattern reflects this with an upper high stationed over the St. Elias Range and the southern Yukon with a few transient upper lows moving E over the southern gulf early in the week. This transitions to a stronger upper ridge developing over the gulf of Alaska by mid to late week. The timing and location of easterly waves early next week seems to be the main point of contention in the forecast right now. Models differ on timing and where they cross the panhandle. Some show showers stretched across the northern borders Sunday (and some development most afternoons) while others show a band setting up between Petersburg and Hyder. Differences like this tend to wash out the details and not confident enough to remove chances elsewhere. Once these waves form, there will likely be a distinct band of clouds/showers and some sunshine on either side, stay tuned to the forecast over the weekend for updates on placement. Generally light winds expected for the extended range with no major weather features incoming. Expect the highest winds with the usual sea breeze circulations in the afternoons and evenings. && .HYDROLOGY...Freezing levels will remain above 7,000ft across the northern panhandle through the weekend, resulting in continued diurnal rises on area rivers due to elevation snowmelt. The crests of these, including the Chilkat, will likely be slightly lower on Saturday morning due to cloud cover Friday and cooler surface highs. However, some rain adding to the snowmelt will keep them elevated. Headed into next week, snow levels will hover around 8,000ft with more sunshine, warming, and continue diurnal rises. && .AVIATION...Flying conditions over the panhandle will continue to deteriorate from south to north as a front slowly pushes into the panhandle Friday afternoon and evening. Widespread light rain has the potential to reduce visibilities, but primary impact will be ceilings lowering to 4000 ft or less, especially along the outer coast and southern panhandle. Some LLWS is also likely along the front for the southern panhandle and central outer coast, primarily between 00-06z Friday night. Otherwise can expect conditions to improve once more heading into Saturday afternoon with diminishing showers and ceilings rising once more. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-641-642-644-661>664-671. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAL/NF LONG TERM....EAL/NF AVIATION...STJ MARINE...EAL Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau