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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
260 FXAK67 PAJK 191131 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 331 AM AKDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .SHORT TERM...We are starting off this morning with very similar conditions to yesterday in that a marine layer has moved in over significant parts of the panhandle. This marine layer is preventing temperatures from falling much during the overnight hours but is also limiting daytime temperatures. Conditions today are expected to be similar to yesterday with most places warming up during the day and decreasing cloud cover. The pressure gradient between Whitehorse and Juneau is expected to tighten during the day, so winds through Lynn Canal are expected to come up a little more than the usual sea breezes during the afternoon and into the evening. .LONG TERM.../Thursday into the weekend/...A weather pattern change will bring rain and brief elevated winds back to the panhandle. High pressure ridging will slide east into Canada as a trough of low pressure approaches. This trough could bring some showers or light rain to the area on Thursday. Low confidence on where the greatest chances will be, so for now, stuck with 20 to 40% PoPS. Friday into the weekend is when the greater chance for precip will move in. This is due to a low tracking east through the gulf towards Haida Gwaii. The associated front will swing north into the panhandle. This front will likely (greater than 70% chance) bring rain to the area, especially in the southern half. Farther north, confidence is a little lower, so stuck with PoPS around 40 to 60%. This is due to questioning just how far north will the front track. In addition to the incoming rain, wind speeds will be elevated along the front as well. For now, went with marine wind speeds up to 25 knots along the front in the gulf. Euro ENS and GFS ENS give greater than 60% chance for wind speeds greater than 20 knots along the front during this time. As the front tracks through the inner channels, went with wind speeds around 15 to 20 knots. This was supported by the latest NBM, EURO ENS, GFS ENS, and EURO AIFS. After the frontal passage, 500mb ridge looks to build back up but surface features generally keep light, leftover rain in the area so for now, low PoPS and light winds linger. && .AVIATION... As of 4am AKDT, marine layer and associated cloud deck is working its way up panhandle this morning leading to a mixed bag of CIGS ranging from 500ft at Klawock up to 5000ft at Haines. Lowest CIGS will remain along the southern and coastal panhandle this morning with gradual improvement to upper MVFR to low end VFR flight conditions by the afternoon. Winds should remain 10kts or less expect for PAGY, where an isolated gust up to 25kts will be possible after 00z. .MARINE...Similar conditions continue this morning across the water with a marine layer covering significant portions of the panhandle and all of the gulf. Winds are expected to remain light with the exception of areas that experience sea breeze enhancements during the day. This pattern is expected to change late tonight through Thursday as a low moves into the gulf and brings south winds to the area. One thing that will need to be watched will be how much the low disrupts the marine layer that has developed. && .HYDROLOGY...Minor flooding along the Chilkat due to snow and ice melt continues. The Flood advisory for this flooding has been extended through Thursday. Elsewhere, warm temperatures are allowing for continued runoff from snow and ice melt to bring up rivers and creeks across the panhandle but remain below bankfull. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...SF LONG TERM....GJS AVIATION...NM Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau