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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
656 FXAK67 PAJK 182248 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 248 PM AKDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday night/...Situation today was very similar to yesterday and will be similar to tomorrow. Repeating themes include a marine layer advancing inland from the outer coast and afternoon Canadian thunderstorms approaching from the north/northeast with few if any making it over the Coast mountains. The low clouds associated with the marine layer over the inner channels will slowly dissipate through the day leaving much of Southeast Alaska under partly cloudy skies. Strongest winds will once again be over the far northern inner channels with southerly winds 10 kts increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon in Skagway. Also am expecting low end small craft winds in Lynn Canal by tomorrow afternoon. A pattern change will begin wednesday night with the approach of a surface trough from the west. This will displace the surface high pressure ridge situated over the eastern Gulf which has been responsible for the marine layer these past few days. The trough will also re-introduce the possibility of precipitation along the northern half of the outer coast by late Wednesday night and heading into the long range forecast period. .LONG TERM.../Thursday into the weekend/...A weather pattern change will bring rain and brief elevated winds back to the panhandle. High pressure ridging will slide east into Canada as a trough of low pressure approaches. This trough could bring some showers or light rain to the area on Thursday. Low confidence on where the greatest chances will be, so for now, stuck with 20 to 40% PoPS. Friday into the weekend is when the greater chance for precip will move in. This is due to a low tracking east through the gulf towards Haida Gwaii. The associated front will swing north into the panhandle. This front will likely (greater than 70% chance) bring rain to the area, especially in the southern half. Farther north, confidence is a little lower, so stuck with PoPS around 40 to 60%. This is due to questioning just how far north will the front track. In addition to the incoming rain, wind speeds will be elevated along the front as well. For now, went with marine wind speeds up to 25 knots along the front in the gulf. Euro ENS and GFS ENS give greater than 60% chance for wind speeds greater than 20 knots along the front during this time. As the front tracks through the inner channels, went with wind speeds around 15 to 20 knots. This was supported by the latest NBM, EURO ENS, GFS ENS, and EURO AIFS. After the frontal passage, 500mb ridge looks to build back up but surface features generally keep light, leftover rain in the area so for now, low PoPS and light winds linger. && .AVIATION...Generally expecting MVFR with CIGS AOA 025 AGL through tonight most locations, but with marine layer working its way back near shore and over some of the inside channels tonight we expect sites like Klawock, Sitka, Gustavus, and Yakutat to go IFR with CIGS AOB 010 AGL late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will be generally light for the next 48 hrs, but as we get some breaks in the stratus late morning into the early afternoon, we expect to see some seabreeze interactions for Skagway and Juneau tomorrow with 10-15 kts from the SW. Otherwise no other significant impacts expected through the forecast period. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fritsch LONG TERM....GJS AVIATION...JG Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau