495
FXAK67 PAJK 161311
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
511 AM AKDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ Mostly quiet short range
forecast today with various sources of cloud cover over the area
this morning. Marine layer low clouds are plaguing the Gulf waters
and outer coast while the southern panhandle has some lingering
mid level clouds. Finally a band of mid to high level cloud cover
is descending southward over the northern panhandle from an upper
level short wave.

Generally looking at varying cloud cover through the day and into
tonight with high temps today depending on how cloudy your area
ends up being. Highest temperatures (again approaching or
exceeding 70) will be in the northern inner channels, while the
south and outer coast will see 60s for highs due to more cloud
cover.

Possibility of more showers and possible thunderstorms along the
Coast Mountains this afternoon and evening as storms develop in
Canada and track SW. Misty Fjords and Hyder in particular have the
higher chances of seeing these showers.


.LONG TERM...Summer is here in the long term. Get out and enjoy
it while you can.

Monday a ridge will continue to dominate the region, with the
axis retrograding under the influence of a closed low moving along
the northern coast of mainland Alaska. Dry, with afternoon sea
breezes in the inner channels is the main theme over the next few
days. By the end of the week, an extension of a closed low over
the Aleutians attempts to form into a longwave trough and move
into the Gulf, bringing some onshore flow, cooler temperatures,
and increasing PoPs through the weekend. However, models are being
a bit too optimistic on ridge breakdown, so have pushed back the
timing on this feature.

Threats to coastal and gulf waters remain low, with our swells
significant deep ocean wave heights remaining under 8ft. With that
said, stout 15 to 20 knot northwest winds along the coast will
bring short period wind driven waves to the west coast of Prince
of Wales and into Dixon Entrance.


&&

.AVIATION...Across the panhandle, VFR conditions continue for the
most of the inner channels. The exception to this is areas near
the outer coast where a marine layer has setup again during the
overnight hours. Conditions near this layer vary from VFR down to
pockets of IFR. These conditions are expected to continue during
the morning hours before daytime heating allows for some
disruption of this layer. Redevelopment of this layer is expected
this evening while locations farther inland and expected to
continue with VFR conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat river rose to near minor flood stage
overnight and is currently still rising due to snowmelt from the
recent warm temperatures. A flood advisory was issued for the
river and cresting of the river just above minor flood stage is
expected around mid to late morning. Northern rivers are expected
to show higher waters with the increased runoff from snowmelt due
to the warmer temperatures expected this week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SF

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