Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
456 FXAK67 PAJK 221231 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 431 AM AKDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SHORT TERM... Key Messages: -Elevated winds within Clarence Strait and Lynn Canal up to 20kts Saturday afternoon. -Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue across the panhandle through today, gradually tapering off moving into Sunday. No major changes or significant weather hazards expected in the short term forecast as a low in the southeast Gulf of Alaska weakens and slowly tracks eastward towards Haida Gwaii through Sunday. Bands of vorticity wrapping around this low will continue to bring isolated to scattered showers across the panhandle today, with highest precipitation chances expected along and south of a line from Sitka to Angoon through tonight. Sustained winds within inner channels should remain around 15 kts or less with brief period of elevated sustained winds up to 20 kts within Clarence Strait and Lynn Canal during the afternoon. Anticipating high temperatures to be similar to previous days, reaching into the 60s across the panhandle with isolated areas reaching into the low 70s for areas that break out of cloud cover. .LONG TERM... Extended forecast mainly features a showery start followed by drying conditions into mid to late next week. Upper level pattern reflects this with an upper high stationed over the St. Elias Range and the southern Yukon with a few transient upper lows moving E over the southern gulf early in the week. This transitions to a stronger upper ridge developing over the gulf of Alaska by mid to late week. The timing and location of easterly waves early next week seems to be the main point of contention in the forecast right now. Models differ on timing and where they cross the panhandle. Some show showers stretched across the northern borders Sunday (and some development most afternoons) while others show a band setting up between Petersburg and Hyder. Differences like this tend to wash out the details and not confident enough to remove chances elsewhere. Once these waves form, there will likely be a distinct band of clouds/showers and some sunshine on either side, stay tuned to the forecast over the weekend for updates on placement. Generally light winds expected for the extended range with no major weather features incoming. Expect the highest winds with the usual sea breeze circulations in the afternoons and evenings. && .AVIATION... Lowered CIGs continue this morning with the rain that is moving across the area with some areas down to LIFR conditions while most places are seeing VFR conditions. Some sites are reporting MVFR VIS as well across the southern panhandle. These conditions are expected to continue through the morning with some improvement during the day. AAWU guidance continues to show some potential for icing across the panhandle today as well as some turbulence for the southern panhandle. && .HYDROLOGY... Freezing levels will remain above 7,000ft across the northern panhandle through the weekend, resulting in continued diurnal rises on area rivers due to elevation snowmelt. The crests of these, including the Chilkat, will likely be slightly lower on Saturday morning due to overspreading cloud coverage. However, some rain adding to the snowmelt will keep them elevated. Headed into next week, snow levels will hover around 8,000ft with more sunshine, warming, and continue diurnal rises. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661-663-664-671. && $$ SHORT TERM...NM LONG TERM....EAL/NF AVIATION...SF Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau