930
FXAK67 PAJK 212313
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SHORT TERM...Short range forecast is decidedly more cloudy and
damp than the last few days have been. This is thanks to a new low
in the south central gulf that is spinning up a front into the
panhandle today. As of 1 pm rain has only started on western
Prince of Wales Island so far and a few intermittent sprinkles as
far north as Juneau and Gustavus. Offshore buoys are showing an
increase in winds associated with the front, with 23 kt sustained
winds at the west Dixon Entrance buoy and 17 kt at Cape Edgecombe
buoy.

Into tonight, the front will continue to spread into the
panhandle and expend most of its rainfall and wind on the southern
half of the panhandle. Many areas of the south will likely see
gusty winds overnight as the front moves in, but they are expected
to fall short of frequent gusts to 40 mph. For marine areas, the
gulf waters and Clarence Strait will see the most wind but are
expected to top out at 25 kt at most.

Winds and rain will start a gradual diminishing trend into
Saturday as the primary front will have moved through. As the low
center weakens and slowly tracks eastward over Haida Gwaii, bands
of vorticity rotating about it will cause periodic showers across
the panhandle. The most likely places to see showers on Saturday
will be the south, but wouldn`t rule it out for anywhere as some
showers may move in from Canada or develop in place due to a sunny
break. Lowered high temperatures slightly for Saturday due to
clouds, but should be a touch warmer than Friday.

.LONG TERM...Extended forecast mainly features a showery start
followed by drying conditions into mid to late next week. Upper
level pattern reflects this with an upper high stationed over the
St. Elias Range and the southern Yukon with a few transient upper
lows moving E over the southern gulf early in the week. This
transitions to a stronger upper ridge developing over the gulf of
Alaska by mid to late week.

The timing and location of easterly waves early next week seems to
be the main point of contention in the forecast right now. Models
differ on timing and where they cross the panhandle. Some show
showers stretched across the northern borders Sunday (and some
development most afternoons) while others show a band setting up
between Petersburg and Hyder. Differences like this tend to wash
out the details and not confident enough to remove chances
elsewhere. Once these waves form, there will likely be a distinct
band of clouds/showers and some sunshine on either side, stay
tuned to the forecast over the weekend for updates on placement.

Generally light winds expected for the extended range with no
major weather features incoming. Expect the highest winds with
the usual sea breeze circulations in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Freezing levels will remain above 7,000ft across the
northern panhandle through the weekend, resulting in continued
diurnal rises on area rivers due to elevation snowmelt. The
crests of these, including the Chilkat, will likely be slightly
lower on Saturday morning due to cloud cover Friday and cooler
surface highs. However, some rain adding to the snowmelt will keep
them elevated. Headed into next week, snow levels will hover
around 8,000ft with more sunshine, warming, and continue diurnal
rises.

&&

.AVIATION...Flying conditions over the panhandle will continue to
deteriorate from south to north as a front slowly pushes into the
panhandle Friday afternoon and evening. Widespread light rain has
the potential to reduce visibilities, but primary impact will be
ceilings lowering to 4000 ft or less, especially along the outer
coast and southern panhandle. Some LLWS is also likely along the
front for the southern panhandle and central outer coast,
primarily between 00-06z Friday night. Otherwise can expect
conditions to improve once more heading into Saturday afternoon
with diminishing showers and ceilings rising once more.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-641-642-644-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL/NF
LONG TERM....EAL/NF
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAL

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