068
FXAK67 PAJK 302236
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
236 PM AKDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key messages:
- Precipitation and overcast skies continue for a majority of the
  panhandle.
- A low remains near the eastern gulf as it weakens and moves
  inland.

Details: A band of precipitation has moved north across the
panhandle as of early this afternoon. We are continuing to watch
this band as it increases precipitation rates to around 0.1 to 0.15
inch per hour rates as it moves over an area. This band of
precipitation has already begun to weaken leaving areas of light
rain across the panhandle. This light rain will continue into
tomorrow as the low in the eastern gulf weakens and moves inland.

A ridge developing over the gulf Tuesday will also help to move the
low inland. This ridge moves over the eastern gulf late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will help to lighten rain rates on Tuesday to a 60%
to 70% chance of 0.1 inches in 6 hours. That being said, an upper
level low will help to continue that light rain. Most of this rain
will be focused on the central panhandle, but no impacts are
expected. Winds will remain light in the short term with the daily
increase in winds in N. Lynn Canal into Skagway due to a thermal
gradient.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

We are looking for a pattern shift starting Wednesday as broad low
pressure over the eastern GULFAK weakens and weak ridging starts
to setup over SEAK. While a drier trend to the forecast Wednesday
into the weekend is expected, we won`t be rain free. The weak
nature of the ridge with periods of weak upper energy ejecting out
of the central GULFAK upper level low means that scattered showers
will still be around for Thursday and through the 4th of July
weekend. It should not be a washout and guidance does not have any
heavy precipitation through Saturday. We will have to watch an
approaching front moving east out of the central GULFAK on
Sunday. /Garmon

&&

.AVIATION...

Weak low pressure over the eastern GULFAK just NW of Haida Gwaii
will continue to lift to the N through tonight...with an occluded
front moving north across the central Panhandle through tonight.
The associated band of showers currently over the central
panhandle will continue to move north through the evening hours.
The pressure gradient is relaxing as the low weakens, and
generally winds will go lighter through the evening most areas.
The northern Panhandle should remain generally MVFR to VFR
overnight with the central and southern Panhandle seeing MVFR to
IFR in lower ceilings and rain. /Garmon

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: As the low moves northeast into the panhandle, winds along
the gulf slight increase to 15 to 20 kts. The strongest of these
winds are near dixon entrance with wind gusts near 25 to 30 kts.
These stronger winds will decrease tonight through tomorrow
before becoming 5 to 10 kts along the outside waters. The highest
waves are near dixon entrance at 5 ft with a period of around 10
seconds. Waves will also subside through tomorrow to near 3 ft.

Inside: As the low has moved northward, winds have changed direction
within the southern inner channels to become southerly, with the
central to northern inner channels remaining northerly. As this low
diminishes, wind directions across the channels will become
southerly by tomorrow afternoon. Tonight, the northerly winds across
N. Lynn Canal will be overcome by a thermal gradient that will allow
for southerly winds of 15 to 20 kts. This is expected to occur near
Eldred Rock to Taiya Inlet today and tomorrow. Otherwise, the other
windy area will be near Clarence Strait. In Clarence Strait,
southerly winds of 15 to 20 kts are expected to continue before
diminishing tonight into tomorrow, to 10 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Taku River is continuing to steadily rise as
water from the glaicer dammed lake, Lake No Lake, along the
Tulsequah Glacier drains. The river will rise through the next 18
to 24hrs and crest late Tuesday morning just below bankfull
levels of 42 feet. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for
this event with no flooding impacts expected. People who recreate
along the Taku River and Taku Inlet should remain aware of the
rising water conditions along with any debris floating down the
river.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....JG
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...EAB
HYDROLOGY...ABJ

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