856
FXAK67 PAJK 252245
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
245 PM AKDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...500mb area of low
pressure in the gulf will sit and spin through the short term. As
it does, weak troughing will track north through the panhandle. So
right from the start, can`t rule out showers for SE AK.

At the surface, ridging of high pressure will remain in place in the
gulf. Low pressure tracking through western Canada could swing some
showers into SE AK from the east. Kept this mainly contained to
the Icy Strait area and north Wednesday morning. But as temps warm
up, rain showers are possible for the rest of the panhandle, so
PoPS were introduced into parts of the southern panhandle as well.

Temperature wise, no changes were made in the inherited forecast. 850mb
temps are still pretty warm, around 7 to 8C with a warming trend
to 9 to 10C. So kept overnight lows near 50 and highs in the 60s
to low 70s.

There is an exception to the daytime high temp forecast, if
clouds thin out more than expected, then current forecasted
temperatures would be too cool. For example, Juneau`s forecasted
highs tomorrow are around 68 to 72. But the range of potential
temps are as low as 70 to 73 to as high as 76 to 78! So if you
end up seeing more sun than we are thinking, afternoon highs
tomorrow could be upwards of 5 to 7 degrees warmer than current
thinking.


.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Wednesday/ Mid range and extended
forecast is rather quiet for the next week. Upper level pattern
reflects this with ridging in place over southern Yukon and
panhandle with general troughing over the southern gulf. The main
body of the jet stream is expected to remain well south of the
area.

At the surface, initial surface ridging over the gulf will result
in drier, warmer weather for the first part of the extended
range. Afternoon highs are expected to reach into the 60 and 70s
over a wide area through Friday at least with some areas seeing it
into Saturday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms over Canada
will have to be watched for the possibility of them traveling over
the mountains during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the weekend and beyond a new low will be moving into the SE
Gulf spreading a front northeastward through the weekend. Rain and
some increased winds will be spreading across the southern
panhandle as early as Saturday night with rain then spreading
north into Saturday. Damp conditions continue into early next week
as the possibly of easterly waves bringing periods of rain into
the panhandle continues.

&&

.AVIATION...Ceilings have widely improved through the day Tuesday
with the remaining holdout being Yakutat which continues to see
influence of marine layer clouds. While VFR conditions should
continue tonight for the inside waters, the outer coast will
likely see a reduction as the marine layer pushes back in dropping
ceilings to 2000 ft or less overnight into Wednesday morning.
Icy Strait corridor may also see some higher level light showers
move through from the east late tonight into Wednesday, with
little impact expected. Aside from localized sea breezes kicking
back up by Wednesday afternoon, expect relatively light winds
overall with no significant wind concerns.

&&

.MARINE...Due to quiet winds and surface high pressure over the
gulf, no big concerns for the marine zones in the short term
forecast. Wave heights of 3 to 5 feet in the gulf with inner
channel waves forecasted to be around 1 to 3 feet. Northern Lynn
could see the highest waves, around 3 feet, due to wind speeds
increasing to around 15 knots Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage today
due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to
remain high over the next several days. Flower Mountain Snotel
site shows around 8.6 inches of SWE still in the snowpack at 2500
feet elevation so there is still a decent amount of snow to melt
at higher elevations of the Chilkat basin. As such the Chilkat
River it expected to remain above minor flood stage for the next
several days, so the flood advisory was extended to Sunday
evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...GJS
HYDROLOGY...GJS

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