450
FXUS61 KAKQ 220753
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
353 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south along the Mid-Atlantic coast into
early next week. Meanwhile, a series of shortwave troughs will
slide across the region in northwest flow aloft bringing on and
off rain chances. Seasonal temperatures are expected to start
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- A backdoor cold front brings cloudy conditions and isolated
  showers.

Persistent low pressure continues to spin well offshore to the NE
this morning. Meanwhile, a weak backdoor cold front is draped across
far northeastern portions of the FA. Aloft, NW flow continues over
the FA with the trough offshore and a broad ridge to the W. There
are some spotty showers associated with the front which are located
across portions of the Eastern Shore as of latest radar. These will
shift SW toward the Northern Neck/southern Eastern Shore area
through the early morning hours. Obs are indicating some fog, but
this is mostly limited to the NE portion of the area so far. May
need a targeted Dense Fog Advisory for Louisa and adjacent counties
as we get closer to sunrise.

The backdoor front will drift SW through the day bringing cloudy
conditions and isolated showers. Have kept PoPs to 15-20% for most
of the day. Low clouds will persist over much of the area for most
of the day, but may start to scatter out some closer to sunset,
especially closer to the coast. Highs today will range from the mid-
70s in the NE to around 80 in the SW. Lows tonight will be on either
side of 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant start to the week with dry weather and highs in the
  70s

- Low end chances for showers on Tuesday.

Sfc low pressure offshore will finally make some progress on its
journey S Mon into Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure centered well
to the N will build down the E coast. The ridge aloft slides east
early week, its axis sliding in overhead late Monday/early Tuesday.
The ridge looks to amplify along the coast mid week as a trough
deepens over the Plains. Mon looks to be dry locally (albeit
cloudy), but a shortwave trough approaching the region may bring
chances for showers on Tues. However, high pressure at the coast may
limit rain to western counties. Have Chc PoPs W of I-95 on Tues and
SChc to the E. Temps on Mon look pleasant with highs in the mid to
upper 70s. Temps don`t look terribly different Tues, but thick cloud
cover and higher rain chances may keep highs around 70 in the NW.
Lows Mon and Tues night will be in the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Multiple low-end chances for precip next week.

The ridge aloft will slide offshore Wed as the trough moves into the
Upper Midwest. SW flow will bring more moisture into the area, and a
series of weak shortwaves will yield several opportunities for rain.
Confidence is low, however, given disagreements between the global
models on how to handle the UL trough and the potential tropical
system in the Gulf. Stuck generally to NBM for PoPs given this
uncertainty which gives widespread Chc PoPs Wed and Thurs. Could
also see showers Fri/Sat, but only have SChc these days. Highs will
be similar Wed-Fri with upper 70s-low 80s in the SE and mid-70s in
the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Flight restrictions, primarily MVFR, are likely across all
terminals during the 06z TAF period as a backdoor cold front
drops across the FA. RIC will likely be the first impacted,
dropping into IFR within the next few hours. While low CIGs are
the primary concern, nearby obs in the area have been showing
some fog as well. The remaining terminals drop into MVFR later
this morning (09-12z) as the lower CIGs spread E and S. MVFR
likely persists until late morning or early afternoon near the
coast and into the late afternoon inland. SE winds will become
NE behind the front. A few showers are expected along the front.
Have not included these in the TAFs due to low coverage of
precip/low confidence in terminal impacts.

There is a potential for another round of lower CIGs late Sun
night/early Mon morning. Otherwise, mainly dry and VFR Mon.
Minimal chcs of showers are forecast Tue through Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 405 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all coastal waters
  through Monday (primarily for seas).

- Winds increase Sunday, but remain mainly sub-SCA. Waves may
  build to 4 ft late Sunday/Sunday night at the mouth of the
  Bay.

- Persistent long period swells keep seas elevated into the
  middle of next week.

Sfc low pressure (~1007mb) lingers well off the southern New
England and NJ coast, with high pressure centered well to the N,
across NewFoundland/Labrador. SE winds ~10 kt (10-15 kt across
the bay) continue into this evening, diminishing to 5-10 kt
overnight. Winds become E 10-15 kt with perhaps a few gusts to
around 20 kt Sun behind a weak area of low pressure which moves
SE across VA and into E NC. Winds become NE 15-20 kt across the
coastal waters and lower bay (15 kt with a few gusts to around
20 kt for the rest of the bay) Sun evening into early Sun night
before diminishing to 10-15 kt. Cannot rule out a few gusts up
to 25 kt across the northern coastal waters. Waves and seas were
1-2 ft (2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay) and 4-5 ft respectively
this afternoon. Expect seas to build to 5-7 ft Sun night into
Mon, potentially remaining elevated through mid week. As such,
have maintained SCAs for the coastal waters until Mon evening.
Will note that these SCAs will need to be extended in future
updates. Confidence is still too low for any headlines (outside
of 3-4 ft waves at the mouth of the Ches Bay).

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM Saturday...

- Key Message: Long duration coastal flood event continues
  across the region, with flooding likely to persist through mid
  week. Various headlines remain in effect (see latest CFWAKQ
  for details).

Tidal departures have risen slightly over the past 12 hrs, with
some areas now >+1.5 ft above astro tide levels. This
afternoon`s high tide cycle is the higher of the daily cycle
(astronomically), which will lead to water levels into moderate
flood thresholds for most sites in the mid/upper Bay, as well as
the VA eastern shore. Va Beach and Currituck, NC peaked at right
around moderate flood stage. The high tides Sunday and Monday
afternoon look to be slightly higher than this afternoon`s high
tide. As such, expect additional rounds of moderate coastal
flooding through Monday evening. Portions of the upper bay may
see moderate coastal flooding continue into Tuesday. For now,
have issued Coastal Flood Warnings for most of the Chesapeake
Bay, Virginia Beach, Currituck, and Eastern Shore (apart from
around Ocean City, MD) through Monday evening. Confidence was
too low at Yorktown to extend the Coastal Flood Warning beyond
Sunday, but this may need to be extended in future updates. Have
opted to leave Norfolk and Chesapeake in a Coastal Flood
Advisory (as opposed to a Coastal Flood Warning) given that the
Elizabeth River and Swell`s Point look to remain below moderate
flood stage. However, if tides trend up, they may need to be
added to the warning. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains across
the Atlantic side of the Maryland Eastern Shore with Ocean City
looking to remain in minor flood stage through Monday afternoon.
Additional coastal flooding looks to continue into mid week.

In addition, a High rip current risk is in effect through
Sunday and will likely be extended into Monday as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT Monday night for
     VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT Monday for VAZ076-078-
     085-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for VAZ083-518-
     520.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for VAZ084-086-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VAZ089-
     090-093-096-524-525.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
     Monday for VAZ089-090-093-096.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ095-097.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB/MAM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...